I was looking forward to the anticipated and long overdue...

I was looking forward to the anticipated and long overdue SUD-001H deal. This was the deal that should of had multi million $$ upfronts and secured working capital to prevent further cap raising and dilution.  Unfortunately it was not.  It was all but finalized in April 2018 and as has been mentioned here SUD has no control over the partner signing...clearly this is one of the challenges SUD has - they cannot control the timing of deals. 

SUD are the taker in these deals, the big pharma calls the shots and in this instance SUD got a bad deal.  $400k up front is a poor result (great for Strides), no mention of timelines, no real detail on royalties - highly likely to be single digit.  Shareholders will most likely not see any further revenue from this transaction for 3 ~5 years if all goes well.  It appears Strides have done a good deal for Strides shareholders, this does not = good deal for Suda shareholders.  If Strides deal so is great as mentioned here suggest go buy up Strides shares - they can do quality deals, have access to capital markets, and have diversified revenue streams to support their business without constant capital raising and dilution. 

The Eddingpharm deal which was penned in 9th Nov 2016 has not progressed at all.  There has not been the 'small trial' that is required or any clear evidence of progress towards registration in China even now 2+ years from deal signing.  If you dig a little on this you may find that Suda and Eddingpharm did not hit it off so well post signing.  Maybe a good question for the AGM this week.  When this deal was announced the share bounced a little and then fully retraced, why?  Any revenue or real value not likely to be seen for years which turned out to be correct.

The Teva deal which was penned in July 2017, low upfront again but had potential to bring in cash in shorter period than Eddingpharm.  When deal was announced shares bounced a bit then fully retraced going to record lows.  Teva has the marketing application in for Chile but it would appear it is taking longer than expected.  I was told Q3 this year, that has past and now the co is saying very little about it.  Teva also have about 8 weeks to take up the option for more territories per the deal, so far no word on this.. if all goes quite then you can take it that Teva not interested.

ArtiMist, about 8 years after they stated they would get the product registered in April 2017 they finally put the submission into TGA at stated in would be completed in 255 day.  So far not complete and expected sometime next year.  Why? Well it would appear the company cannot respond to TGA questions and requests in timely manner.  Maybe another good question for the AGM.  It would be a great result for all if they could sell ArtiMist for $15M or so that is has cost so far.

It's not all bad news.  The management are doing their best I'm sure but they will require further capital raising to get to a point of self funding, this could still be years away even if all goes well.  If the options get triggered at some point then that is ok but again further dilution.  I suspect next CR will be late next year via a placement of 15% adding another 400,000,000 shares to the register. 

In 2002 when the company floated they issued around 87,000,000 shares at 20cents.  They now have circa 2,700,000,000 at 0.006 cents, impressive growth in shares by any measure (quantity that is).  Or when they listed in 2002 the market cap was about $17M, and today it is about $16M, over 16 years and 10's of millions in capital raising and shareholder dilution they have achieved very little..this is a fact.

With the SUD-001H they had the chance to turn this around but a sub-standard deal light on detail is not good enough.  If you look at the trading in recent weeks it is the large holders existing the register to small retailers.  The lasted Top 20 supports this view also with the exception of ex chairman who is a solid supporter. 

The company has great potential however even with a CBD deal, Asian Zolpi Deal they are still likely to require further capital and results in further dilution.  Watch the Jan 4C and April 4C - this will provide the heads up.  When the cash on hand is about $1M they will seek additional funding.

There probably is good $$ to be made trading SUD from time to time but that is about it.  The market will dictate price and as of now 0.006 cents it is, it might go for a run higher but unlikely to be sustained due to weight of high operating costs, ongoing payments for the HCBP settlement and high risk project pipeline.

Suda's deals are like finding a world class gold deposit in the middle of nowhere - great but getting the gold to market is going to take years of time and truck loads of money.  As usual DYOR.

PS.

Pfizer = Fizer