In the past, I'd agree with you, anything under 40 cents was a buying opportunity because you knew the comapny was going to use the buyback to support the share price around this level and once some good news came out it would rise and you'd be in profit.
This time I'm not so sure there in a position to do so and they only have 7 million of the existing buyback to fill. They could send out a strong message by filling it and starting another one with the capacity to buy in another 40 or 50 million shares.
As to the loan issue, if you look at page 1 of the annual accounts, you'll see they drew down the loan for $60M and have then in effect had to repay $15M of it. That's the really worrysome bit, as if cash-flow is not enough to warrant/support such a size of loan.
As to the $16M write-down, I'm totally unsure of which asset, or assets they would be writing of for such sums and why. The only thing that does come to mind is the fact that SS is much more gas prone than was originally expected. So although the reserve numbers might not have changed nat gas is much less valuable than oil, so this may have something to do with, but I could be totally wrong on this. The company chooses not to inform shareholders of the details.
You're braver than me, even if I wasn't fully invested in JPR, I'm not sure I'd be taking the plunge into Antares just yet, I'd want to see the buyback at work before dipping in. As its been the floor for the shares for the last 15 months. If its not in place now, then I think 35 cents might well get tested.
At which point I think the Institutional investors might decide its time for change within Antares.
An interesting day and month ahead.
LOTM
AZZ Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
