VPG vodafone group plc.

As previously indicated by posters, can I suggest contacting...

  1. 1,989 Posts.
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    As previously indicated by posters, can I suggest contacting Valad directly by email or phone. In addition, file am ASIC complaint as I have done.

    The 'Suitors' story indeed suggests a conflict of interest existing prior to Hurley 'stepping aside'. The fact that indications of interest before the MBO announcemnt had been turned away with one with the comment '..jewel in the crown' more than suggests such overtures were at difference with Hurley's clandestine plans. Yet while such approaches would have been based on the principal of market value requiring some form of early disclosure, instead Hurley makes nothing of these enquiries public to holders, an instead continues his plans culminating in his MBO proposal.

    The uncertainty continues to erode away at the sp, but nonetheless not the underlying value of the company. According to releases, business still appears to be doing well in Europe, and as the economies recover, the books will further improve.While Valad may have carried its European operation at some $76million give or take, any bid is expected to be a multiple of that.Any market price considers rates of return moresoe than revenue, so the question is what is the ROR on Europe and projections for this over the coming couple of years.For example if I stick $100 in the bank at 5%, then after some 20 years, I've made my money back assuming never use the principal. Reits typically offer in the order of 10% give or take, so if I as an individual were to bid on Europe, I'd look for a price that was less than 10 times the ROR. Pretty simplistic, but gives the general idea. And then there is the question of improvements in the ROR, or expectations that must be factored in - as far as stock trading, these have a greater bearing than the ROR due to dividends typically. And as Europe strengthens and Valad wins more mandates, not only does its revenue strengthen, but also the expectations of further strengthening. Then there is the goodwill and underlying plant and infrastructure with its fixed cost. All these factor should shape any bid, and I would be interested in any other posters have estimates themselves of the ROR from Europe and could hazard a guess as to a fair market price.

    Regardless, in Australia the recent announcements regarding Catherine Field as well as Goldfields and Corrimal suggest things are still going forward. So things can only get better locally. If I put the local and European arms together. obviously the stock is well undervalued, and basing any prices on NAV or NTA pretty much makes no sense and would still be well undervalued. For example, back to the bank analogy. If I put the $100 in a deposit for a year, with the restriction that need to wait the entire year before any returns payable. But after 11 months and 3 weeks having patiently waited find a cashflow problem where I need $100 - so I pull out the principla and lose the interest (and a few bucks penalties). If instead I could 'sell' the rights to another individual and he loans me the $100, we both only need to wait a week and then divvie up the proceeds as however we agree. Valad appears to be in the 11th month - durng the first 11 no incomes derive from developments, and we only need wait for one more month before the proceeds are realized. But for some odd reason, the current sp as well as MBO I presume, are only considering the current situation, not the fact that massive investments have been made that will soon come to fruition. The nature of investment is just that - you stick in your money, and wait. Stocks with regular dividends are different - there's not much waiting since you're basically funding a going concern with your stock purchase.

    Anyway a longwinded post, but the real point is that any price for any bid needs to factor in future income streams especially since much of the money has been sunk into medium term investments/developments in previous years, and that the actual return on these may be a year or more in the coming. If any bidder could purchase VPG solely on current share prices, then once these developments are realised, they suddenly make a windfall having spent nothing. Let's wait and see and hope majority holders echo our sentiments to not accept any MBO bid, and additionally punish all those involved. Given the goings on this year, I'd happily pay Hurley his $2m exit fee. If we keep him, then there's any guess how much he'll jack this up to in a year or two. And that doesn't factor in the real damage in dollar terms of allowing him to continue! $2million - sounds like we got a cheap deal here.
 
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