sum of the parts value

I'm sure it has been gone over ad infinitum recently but the general view of commentators and research reports suggests that the net equity after piecemeal asset sales and debt repayment, even in administration, would likely come out around the 82c per share offer price.

I know it would take longer and be a bit messy but if the takeover doesn't get up but is there not still significant residual value above debt? The prospect of administration looms large due to cash flow crisis and inability to refinance not because the net worth of the company is zero. An administrator/receiver would be working for the company not the banks and as indicated by this takeover offer the assets would find buyers. Probably PH sold seperately to BHP for a large figure, the sum of the parts might rise above 82c net debt and fees.

Most commentators say the FIRB will not be a problem (as it wasn't for Mt Isa Mines and Xstrata which is the most similar case of base metal miner sold 100% into foreign hands). The banks will not make any more money by knocking back refinance and it would be politically a poor move for no real gain. China is getting a great discounted deal without paying any premium and they will not risk letting it go into admin and shoot for a lower price because they might find certain desirable assets end up elsewhere. Shareholders are obviously fearful and desperate so they will grab the takeover offer with both hands.

So we have a situation where fearful, risk adverse and liquidity stretched shareholders are taking some or a large part of their money off the table while they can. I'm sure we all thought about taking 82c and sailing off yesterday but never got the opportunity. A plunging share price in the face of this wall of fearful and greatful liquidation just causes more fear and angst so the traders churn and few are brave enough to step into the breach.

All the above suggests strongly to me an oversold situation based on risk-reward parameters. The most fearful part of this situation is fear itself not the facts IMO. All DYOR but I smell almost 50% arbitrage profit for a few months patience and the risk of getting the same money perhaps 12 months down the track if bankers don't refinance and similar asset sales are made by an Administrator rather than receiver.

goodluck