Dazed I can understand where your coming from, but I think your pendulum has swung too far in negative assumptions.
We may be in the hole for $50m at Umiat at the moment but the verdict for a pos/neg outcome is still in abeyance and won't be factual until all the results are in. Exploration in any company takes money and is also always a risk. Given it's location we were never going to have a Texas style John Wayne standing under a black gold gusher. I am neutral on Umiat until all the drilling is completed, especially the horizontal drill which I consider will possibly be the most telling.
I also doubt Linc will flog off Teresa any time soon, not unless they receive an offer to good to refuse. They held onto it through far tougher times than this when they didn't receive an offer they thought worthwhile. Have progressed it extensively and we may well see it in production in a couple of years time.
I also disagree with you on your Adani assumption, I lean more towards Anthony75's posts on that.
I don't disagree that Linc seems to be running on a fine line financially, to my inexperienced eye they have been doing that since I bought in. Although I do think we are better off now than then.
I agree with your UCG point, but if it was any different the SP would be sky rocketing as the UCG flood gates ever widened. I lean towards the eventual positive outcome on that, otherwise I would never have bought in in the first place and it is the main reason I did so.
As for SA, if one was to discount 95% of the bids, that still leaves 3 or 4 serious contenders. What we will get out of it up front (if anything) I have no idea, it may simply come down to how keen the JV contender is and what they are prepared to offer to secure the JV. After all a major can spend around $120m on a single deep sea drill for a potential 5-6TCF return. My point is what may they be prepared to spend here over 3 years? Time will tell, and that may not be too far off at that.
I do agree as far as shale gas goes that there may be problems regarding water, I'm sure the bidders are well aware of that. Too many if's but's and maybe's at this point. I'm positive on the possibilities but neutral on the facts as we don't have enough information on exactly what is there and how much it's worth.
In the mean time, the Insto's will play with this as much as they deem they can make a quid either way as per always.
The thing that has mostly not changed IMO is that LINC is still high risk/high reward, although I do consider that the chances of high reward have increased in the positive possible UCG side of Linc.
No matter though, at the end of the day one does what one thinks is best for ones self. Personally I won't be withdrawing my bet here as yet, the race to me is just getting more exciting, even if it is a hurdles race as apposed to a flat race. I just hope there won't be too much rain. ;)
Okay, coffee finished as well as my 2c diatribe, cheers.
LNC Price at posting:
$1.53 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
