sumitomo, page-38

Yes you're right ltl, there is a great diversity ofopinion amongst the "experts" ATM, Jack Lifton is still in the Dy/Y shortage camp, his compatriot Gareth Hatch just supported a "spruik" on the shortage of phosphors (Eu, Tb, Y) while Kingsnorth came back from a tour of China/SE Asia and made his Dy surplus forecast on the evidence he saw of Dy thrifting & Dy free magnets.
Interestingly both Lynas & Moly research (not forgetting Con K from Neo is probably THE ROW hands on RE magnet authority) are both forecasting an uncertain future for Dy due to tech advances and a very soft phosphors demand:
"While currently tight, there are questions in relation to the long run outlook for HREs
? Phosphors (Eu,Tb and Y) – how quickly will LED substitution take place globally? Or will the continued move to ban high energy consuming lamps globally grow the phosphors market?"
"Magnets (Dy) – how successful / unsuccessful will Dy reduction technologies be?"
Anyone interested can find similar commentary in the Moly QR transcripts.

Point is there is considerably different opinions ATM on the demand profile for Eu, Tb, Dy & Y but the fact that does seem well established is that 90% of the processing capability and market for these elements lies inside China, and anybody wanting to sell concentrate, mixed chlorides, even oxides is going to have to deal on a China domestic basis. Lynas has recently had to face this reality with their magnet stream.

Just as a pointer, the starting price for China domestic Dy oxide is circa $250kg vs FOB circa $550kg (wonder what it would be if Dudley's forecast proved out?) so I would have thought $250kg (still a handsome price mind you) would be a more accurate starting point for any calculation of partially finished or separated Dy product.

Hope you find that useful.