Summary of BRK, page-114

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rego55

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09/04/21

19:05

Post #: 52367771
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Originally posted by danpech: ↑

Hi JC

Sorry if this is a bit incoherent but at the Hunter Valley for a gin festival weekend anf had a long long so comprehensively smashed rift now.

Yep, going to the AGM and will be there with a number of LT holders like Peto, the frofessional and chilled pain so o
Looking forward to catching up with hopefully many Hc posters

I understand where your coming from , and agree with what you are trying to point out' but what you are calculating is fundamentally inaccurate which is why it only works if you drill all the wells simulanteosly and there is no decline, which is why I posted the production/ time type curve.

After 5 year production the well will not produce at the initial 1000 BOEPD which is the point I am trying to make. At year 5, a well which IPs at 1300 BOEPD in year 1, made up of 800 BOPD and 3 mmcfgpd will be producing at ~ 50 BOPD and 1.2 mmcfgpd , or ~ 250 BOEPD if my drunken maths is correct. There is a step decline of ~ 40% per annum from the early flush production. Your calculations provide a much too inflated picture and are applicable to one years production without decline .... the total resource, even if is 20 million BOE which I personally will be closer to the mark will take 25+ years to produce, where almost 60% will be produced in the first 24 months.

That is the point I am trying to convey.

I applaude your attempt to and agree that you don't say all the wells are drilled simultaneously, but your calculations imply that occurring.

We will catch up at the AGZm... it will be a day to remember for many a reason no doubt.

Cheers

Dan

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Haha - that's hilarious!

Well done getting all that down 'on paper' during/post gin-fest.

Those oil production curves follow a similar path to my drunken euphoria. An initial strong start with rapid production of middling quality gags then steady and rapid decline to the gutter. Maybe the AGM could be worth a little trip.

BRK Price at posting: 2.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Summary of BRK, page-114

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