(Refer 21/02/07 announcement) QUOTING Peter Cook: “Based on the...

(Refer 21/02/07 announcement) QUOTING Peter Cook: “Based on the only concrete advice GSK has given its shareholders, which is that it would increase annual Relenza production capacity to 15 million courses. Our analysis of reported sales for the Dec Q implies GSK’s Relenza production is tracking about that rate.
There have been unconfirmed reports that GSK may double or treble capacity during calendar 2007.” End of Quote

The Relenza Dec 06 Q royalty of $7.3m more than doubled to Mar 07 Q $16M confirmed GSK was forced by Government orders to increase production capacity to between 30 to 45 million course p.a. during the Avian Flu pandemic stockpiling During this period Relenza market share of the antiviral sales was about 5% and Tamiflu 95%..

In last Saturday news article, Peter Cook claimed his idiotic $20m GSK settlement allowed Relenza to achieve 1/3 of market share of the antiviral sales to Australia and outsell Tamiflu in Japan for the first time.

While the law suit was on, a 5% market share forced GSK to increase production to between 30 million to 45 million courses p.a. When market share increased to between 33% to 50% market share GSK should be increasing production to between 180 million to 270 courses p.a. (6 times 30 to 45 m is about 180m to 270m) instead of 60 million courses.

Even if you go with Peter Idiot’s statement that Relenza market share of 13% increased to between 33% to 50% why is GSK production capacity only doubling from 30 million to 60 million compare to a 3x market share increase?

These mathematics are plain facts that GSK is not marketing Relenza with best endeavour. GSK is selling pandemic vaccines they don’t yet have in hundreds of millions doses. Is the following imaginery phone conversation from a potential Relenza buyer very possible?

Buyer: “Yes, I like to order 10 million courses of Relenza.”
GSK: “Sir, our orders are beyond our production capacity- we can deliver them in 15 months time.”
Buyer : “Our people will be dead by then.”
GSK: “No, they wont be sir. We can deliver 10 million courses of our pandemic vaccine to you soon.”

Peter Cook, you have to be a complete idiot to claim credit for the increase in Relenza sales. Relenza sales are demand driven and not GSK driven. When demand had more than treble and GSK had only plan to double production, dont this facts tell you what is wrong?