In september07 Macquarie and other brokers announced that 'mining engineering' companies were going to struggle. The sector got smashed over september, october and november. Every company in engineering/mining services had SP hammered down. Some lost 60%+ in a few weeks!! Then sector steadied in early december. Since then individual shares have flucated quite strongly but trend remained down. Bad news was treated as a total catrastrophy. Look at IDL, SDM and BKN to mention a few.
Then in early feb Goldman Sachs and ABN AMBRO both downgraded UGL. UBS said all 'mining service'companies were to be avoided.
What these Einsteins never realised is that UGL is not (and never has been)a 'mining engineering/service' company. 17% of current revenue is in the resource sector. But only 8%(655m) of its order book of 8.3Billion is in resources. Hence, if not a single future contract re UGL resource order book eventuated.... the company would still be increasing growth and profits.
How can analysts on large salaries get something so fundamentally wrong?? UGL is lumped in with companies that are 100% dependent on mining.
Most funds had no idea of the outstanding result pending. Some incl. UBS sold down a few days prior. Yet the CEO had made repeated foreasts of 10-20% growth. I knew if he didn't deliever his reputation would be trashed. plus the company still has numerous vacancies.How can a company going backwards still be hiring? Basic stuff. Certainly not rocket science.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?