SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Taboon, how do you figure 7c as a reasonable SP for SSN? The...

  1. 8,720 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 81
    Taboon, how do you figure 7c as a reasonable SP for SSN? The liquidiation value is around that or perhaps a bit more:

    1. 2.0-2.5 cps for Hawk Springs based on CHK purchase price (2.5 at CHK purchase price, 20% discount for those who have doubts on Hawk Springs due to Defender results to date)

    2. 1.0-1.5 cps for 3.8% ORRI on CHK acreage purchased from SSN (1.5 based on original estimate of EUR from this acreage or discount by 30% for those who believe CHK's efforts reflect what's actually in the ground there)

    3. 0.5 cps for Nth Stockyard acreage (excludes any value for 3 Forks play)

    4. 3.0 cps for cash

    5. 0.5 cps for other holdings mentioned at the start of this thread

    6. 1.0 cps for Fort Peck acreage (assumes a value of around $375/acre believed to be paid for this acreage, prior to new results published in the area recently which would place the value higher now)

    The above totals 7.0-8.0 cps fully diluted, so Friday's closing SP of 9.1 puts a grand total premium for upside potential of SSN at only 1.1-2.1 cps. If you think thats getting ahead of itself well best you wait until Defender and SOA de-risk Hawk Springs somewhat and Australia 2 de-risks Fort Peck a little bit - but you'll have to pay a little bit more than 9.1 if/when that happens.

    And as for options being overpriced I made one of the final purchases pf SSNO on Friday arvo at 7.5, which is 1.6 down on the SP of 9.1, for in the money options with an ex price of 1.5. Not overpriced imo...

    Cheers, Sharks.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SSN (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.