Welkin, well argued. Not sure I quite agree with the comment on Cu prices long term. The bulk of China's Cu consumption is not dependant on electronic devices to the States...although the financial media hacks believe that this is still so.
China will need 6.4mn tpa from 2010, I heard this from the Minister of Mines at a conference after Apec; and rising. Their requirements are largely infrastructural. China has had some daliances with reticulating electricity through aluminium, but that was only on cost...the capex may have been lower but the distribution leakage will curtail much more of that...and aluminium is rising quite dramatically in prioe.
I have followed PMH for 6 months and am pretty annoyed with myself for completely missing the ramp up from a low of 16c was it? I think that the action is a bit slow around their plans for these reasons -
a) The Ann Mason deposit is the elephant alright and thery have had to drill in specific ways to prove more reources
b) this drilling has been brilliantly successful, and significant increase to resources should be out soon
c) they took up other tenements to do some green fields drilling and these, although not all announced yet, have been very good as well.
d) the structure they have now deliniated will materially impact on the way the mine is designed and the processing metallurgy will now be much clearer, so assisting feasability study design criteria. Indications from PMH are that these variables are pretty stock standard.
PMH has I believe very carefully worded all their announcements. While they had much to crow about they have also used the announcementsto 'advise other market actors' as to their progress.
I should be very surprised to learn that off take agreements and or JVs are not being discussed...anyone that has 130k tonnes of Cu concentrate per year will be on all the majors radars I believe.
The long term price of copper is very strong and while it may have some ups and downs, the demand dynamics, covering mine depletions, shutdowns and delays in getting others started is the key - it has little to do with LME stock piles...they are manipulated by Glencore pretty much - they may end up in the negotiation for such a large quantity of Cu output.
Personally, I doubt that PMH would have too much trouble raising the money, which will be $800+mn I expect.
Merge with Nevada, interesting, their resources are about 70% of PMH's as it stands today, with PMH due for quite an increase. I don't see how that would advantage getting PMH into production.
Final thought, has PMH done any environmental work to date...we would not want another Black Range here would we!
PMH Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held
