SUM 2.17% 23.5¢ summit minerals limited

As I stated in my comment those prices are realistic if their...

  1. 220 Posts.
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    As I stated in my comment those prices are realistic if their drill program does actually return results. As you would personally would have seen with WA1, a share price of $2.50 for SUM is not an unrealistic Market Cap if they do return promising drill results with a pathway to mining. If you're buying options in a micro-cap you're not doing it because you think the stock is going to go up 15%, you're doing it because you think the stock is going to go up at least 200%.

    I am fully aware of the Black-Scholes model. Let's start with making an assumption on volatility - noting that volatility is standard deviation of the stock price, which can be represented by the log of potential stock price change over the period. So a volatility of 100% represents e^1 = 2.72 variation in share price (so between 9c and 68c which is a range we have almost already experienced in the past 6 months alone). Realistically, if we took the outcome of a complete duster in drilling the share price might go down to 5c but if it is successful it would probably go up to at least $1.00. So 100% is probably actually a conservative take on volatility.

    Plug in the other metrics which are much easier 24.5c current share price, 25c strike price, time to maturity 1.1 years, dividend yield 0%, risk-free interest rate 5%. Putting those all in actually generates a call option price of 10.06c. So theoretically SUMO is undervalued...of course there's plenty of detailed debate which you could use to determine a suitable volatility metric to enter into the model and you might disagree with my volatility metric of 100%. I don't think anyone could put an accurate volatility metric that everyone would agree on with SUM. But at the end of the day Black-Scholes does actually account for the leverage which I mentioned before and accepts that there is adequate probability that SUM does have a drastic increase in stock price which would far far outweigh the opposite case of the share price being below the strike price (a 500% gain far outweighs a 100% loss). It's also very interesting that the market seems to hold a similar value perspective as Black-Scholes.

    In saying all of the above trying to validate the use of Black-Scholes on a micro-cap mining company which hasn't started drilling yet is about as useful as trying to count the grains of sand on a beach one-by-one by hand. I would never use Black-Scholes to create a realistic estimate of option value at this end of the market because down here things don't move like the general market does - it comes down to outcomes from single events such as drilling, new contracts and also a bit of luck.

    At the end of the day anyone investing in options in stocks below $100M are doing so because they think there are multiples to be had in the heads which might translate to many more multiples in the options. If that game isn't for you then that is all good. I've had big wins and also 100% losses on options at this level - that is part of the game and often no formula can determine what is a good or bad investment at this level.

    I hope you also got a chance to comment on the forums of those other options I found for you - given you hadn't seen such drastic overvaluing in 25 years - best to let those shareholders know as well.



 
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Last
23.5¢
Change
0.005(2.17%)
Mkt cap ! $20.23M
Open High Low Value Volume
21.5¢ 25.0¢ 21.5¢ $70.1K 300.4K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 20000 23.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
24.5¢ 15888 2
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Last trade - 14.48pm 04/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
SUM (ASX) Chart
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