Blackeyed...presenting aggressive upside cases will make you look like a lunatic.
You will get hooted and hollered at and people will call you all kinds of names.
See Fozza's old thread, original post "$13.20 Valuation?".
But I think 80 tpa could be achieved within two or three years after commissioning, because I believe commissioning will go well, and I believe they will land a major scandium off-take before spring 2019 that will catalyze the industry.
See the news release on the Chinalco-Chongqing collaboration.
Look up Tim Langan, "Dr. Scandium", on the CLQ payroll and working on scan-alu alloys, as we speak.
In time, I just expect multiples.
How many ? Let's start by getting out of the gutter and back to $1.50....or $2.00...
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To your point. I have had a sneaking suspicion all along, that the nickel and cobalt are just a convenient and profitable way for RF to do scandium....because no one is going to fund you to build a mine for a metal that has only 10 tpa annual consumption.
But consider that RF has put forth a capex for Sunrise that is causing all kinds of distress.
And what is in there ? All the expense of a fancy scandium circuit, including a refinery.
Why did they do this ? Mr. Market in its wisdom, hates capex. Why blow peoples' minds on capex for a scandim circuit ?
And WTF is this: Why is Airbus, Chinalco, and UAC getting called out by name in a DFS on nickel and cobalt ?? Robert Friedland is a lot of things. But "stupid" is not one of them.
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First things first, friend. Off-take and financing first. And off-takes may include scandium.
People will laugh at me for saying this, but in my twisted and perverted perception, I think they put only 10 tpa in the DFS so that when they get the take-offs for 50 tpa, they do not have to explain it to anybody.
They just have to get the take-off, and make a change to their spreadsheets and plug in 50 instead of 10 in the scandium box.
Voila. Ultra high-grade EPS. ROI. C1s...we are on nickel by-product accounting, remember?
May I suggest not to worry about the EPS, if the mine is anywhere nearly as good as advertised it will knock everybody's socks off on EPS, and we will be very happy.
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Somewhere I posted about the amount of scandium that would be needed in a major
commercial aircraft that went all-out for weight reduction with scan-alu alloys.
You know, something like a Boeing 767 or Airbus 380, that would sell 25 or 30 units per year.
It was just a down-and-dirty back-of-the-envelope calculation; and I am not predicting a new
aircraft that will do this...at least, not in the near future before the BFS.
But the figure was interesting: roughly 10 tpa in scandium would be needed for such a plane.
I note an analyst who said: "Every kilogram of weight reduction in an aircraft will result in a savings of $1 million dollars in fuel costs, over the life of the plane."
How wonderful. You can imagine how those aviation and aerospace guys hate fuel costs and hate all the weight of that steel and those rivets they have to put in, and how the aluminum guys are licking their chops at all the business they are going to take from the steelmakers.
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