The last game on the platform. The Super Jackpot and the Mega...

The last game on the platform. The Super Jackpot and the Mega Jackpot!

Unlike the other lottery games, these games are based on a raffle system and are drawn once the raffle book is sold out.
Relative to the Super Jackpot, the Mega Jackpot has 26% less tickets, has a starting Jackpot that's 100% higher that goes up in increments of 85% greater, but does cost 150% more!
The Jackpot is won if the winning ticket has already been drawn for a cash prize, in which case the next game starts at the starting Jackpot. This means that the Jackpot odds for the Super game is ~1 in 68 and for the Mega game it is 1 in ~47.

The game mechanics are easy to decipher,
For the Super game, each jackpot is expected to run ~46 draws with a mean Jackpot reaching $6.5m.
I've collated the data starting from January 2017. The blue dots represent the number of games drawn for that given month (red dot signifying a month when the jackpot is won), and the columns represent the average size of jackpots for that given month.


Super games typically run at 4-6 draws per month and go beyond 6 games when the Jackpot climbs above $4m. Essentially, the higher the Jackpot, the more games that are played to win the climbing Jackpot. More recently that baseline has been at 6-7 draws per month. Each Super game collects ~$594k in ticket sales, so when the game is drawing 10x a month, then that equates to ~$5.94m in ticket sales. These numbers are insignificant relative to the lottery games which typically generate 10 to 20x more.

For the Mega game, each Jackpot is expected to run ~32 draws with a mean Jackpot reaching $8.68m. I was going to avoid inputting these games into my valuation model due to their insignificant revenue generation.
However, between 2017 and 2019, something remarkable happened! The game ran for 396 consecutive draws!
The probability for the game to run for 396 draws to generate a Jackpot of $96.04m is 1 in 4652. To put that in context, they say a global pandemic is a 1 in 100 year even, but next time the Jackpot will reach that level is not in the next 100 years or in the next millenium, it will be closer to the year 10000! More time will separate the next jackpot of $96m plus from us than the time that separates us to the Old Kingdom of Egypt.

And oh boy, was the game running hot at its peak!



There's a few things of note with the above picture:
(1) The game typically starts at 1-3 draws per month.
(2) The draws/month (popularity) begins accelerating when the jackpot reaches $5m
(3) Between May 2019 to August 2019, the draws per month stagnated at 40 per month. This is unusual, as by this stage the game was profitable to play (the expected winnings of a player is more than the cost to play when the jackpot reaches $35m)... in fact, this had been the case since January 2019 and had you bought every ticket on offer from May to August, you would've still walked away with a million in the pocket.

The ticket sales have ranged as low as $1m per month all the way to $44m per month.

Both the games have the potential to be popular. They'll need to tweak the game settings to be consistently popular (something like raising the starting jackpot or offering free tickets to low jackpot games to get the jackpot turning over sooner).