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$4.69 saracen mineral holdings limited

Super Pit ... Super Smart ???, page-113

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AverageJoe

42,531 Posts.

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20/11/19

12:39

Post #: 41529241
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Originally posted by eshmun ↑

Nord,

IMO gold as a pure financial commodity is the closest thing to a risk free asset that exists but it also relies on "belief" and favourable regulation for its continued existence, ie belief that it is a store of wealth despite its almost complete lack of utility beyond its utility as a financial asset and governments allowing it to exist. Remember gold as money was made illegal to own in the US for 41 years. Not that country's favourite financial asset.

and although gold is a great risk free asset it is not completely decoupled from other asset classes. You've only got to look at the fluctuation in its USD price during the GFC and that of the equity equivalents, the miners. Gold fell from about $US 1,000/oz to about $US 725/oz as the crisis unfolded. The gold equity companies were hit much worse.

So as far as cycles go you have very very long term cycles measured in multiples of decades which I wouldn't even consider cycles and shorter term cycles which are governed by recessions in the US which are often triggered or accompanied by market melt downs or interest rate yield curve inversions. Nobody could argue against the fact that decade low interest rates and ballooning debt level since the GFC haven't financed consumption.

There are just too many bulls in this market, even gold bulls. You can't finance consumption and investment with debt forever. There will be another recession in the US without doubt within a few years IMO. Past recessions in the US during the modern era have been mild by comparison to historic recessions mainly due to the interventions of CBs and the adoption/invention of low interest rates, money printing and more recently negative interest rates. As always gold and other un-leveraged tangible assets should protect your wealth in the long run or should I say your relative wealth. I would have rather been holding gold than gold stocks through the GFC. Take Barrick Gold for example, its share price remains well below pre-GFC levels. NCM's has only recently got back towards its pre-GFC level highs. This chart is no better example IMO opinion that we are reaching (have reached) the top of a new cycle for gold stocks and equity markets in general. NCM's price has topped IMO opinion and is a leading indicator of the equity bubble deflation we are soon to see. Esh
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Just a one dimensional comparison between Barrick and NCM does not show any correlation between 2 big gold produces because NCM had the benefit of the FX play from a much weaker AUD at a time when the USD gold price at one stage made those leveraged Barrick asset value destruction from low to negative margins. I am seeing a lot more pain in our local economy regardless of rampers telling folks the property markets are doing well and by this time next year will be at all time highs!

I wasn't aware of a wall collapse in Super pit and surely buying at such exorbitant valuation based on a XAUAUD at the top of the market isn't prudent? Are they doing an SBM type of desperate purchase to engineer revenue expansion? Management knows best.

SAR Price at posting: $3.05 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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