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Super Pit ... Super Smart ???, page-119

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20/11/19

16:04

Post #: 41535251
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Originally posted by eshmun: ↑

We were talking about cycles. Nord made a categorical statement which I'm not in agreement with. You can only base expectations for the future on what has happened in the past, the rest is pure conjecture on his part.

The fact is that Barrick's SP is currently still 67% down on its pre-GFC highs and NCM's SP after a full 11 years is still down about 23% from its pre-GFC highs. The share prices of these companies are just paper, they are not gold.

In terms of stock market cycles, which is essentially the premise of Nord's thesis although he won't agree, I think it's nonsensical to look beyond the time scales not governed by the length of time between US recessions or the length of time between US yield curve inversions. His premise seems to be that gold and gold stocks will decouple from the broader markets and economic conditions. If you read the World Gold Council's bulletins they are constantly pointing out that a major factor for the gold price is economic activity. To believe that people are going to run to gold when they start having less spending power defies logic IMO. To try and forecast very long term market behaviour should really be left to Nostradamus or very smart people with very thick spectacles at the controls of complex models and super computers, ie it's a totally academic argument.

Stick to what we know. Markets crash on a period basis, the more derivatives and the more debt in the system the larger the impact of the crash and gold companies are very slow to make real gains in the long run following these crashes. Add to that, that mines are getting deeper with all the attendant risks (aka pit wall failures) and cost pressures, falling grades and big deposits are getting harder to find and the industry will come under more pressure with individual companies (or to be more exact bankster puppet entities) fighting over scrapes to stay large and "relevant". This is exactly what happened at the top of the last gold cycle, expansion for expansions sake. Sacrificing margins for ounces. But let's just ignore recent history. The only thing that can make a step change difference is technology, the copper industry being the best example but so far the few gold companies that are giving that a decent go on small scale mines are finding that a tough gig. ......and people talking about going UG on the Super Pit are really missing the point of what this mine is all about.Esh

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Check NCM financials. Even if GFC didn't happen SP should decline during those years due to poor business performance and high impairment amounts.

2019 the business performed thats why SP back up close to pre gfc if financial of the coy was good during earlier years SP expected to rise earlier. unfortunately during those 10 years or so performance of the business was no where near the pre gfc lvl.

SAR Price at posting: $3.03 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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