Unfortunately I think we have a long way to go yet. Social distancing, isolation, so much discretionary spend is about to plummet. Holidays, takeaways, distance travelled in motor vehicles, fuel consumption. Retail, shopping malls, pubs clubs cinema’s schools. Consumer spending on everything other than toilet paper and hoarding is coming to an abrupt decline... Retail will go online at an every increasing pace. This will be the nail in the coffin for many bricks and mortar retailers. We could be looking at 15% unemployment in 18-24 months from now... My gut feel is the Dow Jones could fall below 14,000 points maybe lower than 10,000. Currently everybody is in panic mode, but in 18 months we could be seeing massive reductions in earnings, numerous corporate collapses. The bottom won’t happen until we start to see some sort of control over the virus, and at the moment the US and Europe do not seem to be slowing it down.. Things could change.. China and South Korea are showing some hope. In the short term it is still getting uglier, and the economy impact hasn’t even really started yet. When the economic impact starts to show in profit warnings and financial reports the market could drift much lower
