I understood Hu's administration but I don't understand Xi. There will be multiple and not necessarily congruent overlays to Xi's posturing on just about ALL of China's international borders.
On the issue of Xi's many border disputes I assume the US position is bi-partisan. To cut a very long story short, all parties will likely wait to see whether or not Biden and Xi can reach an effective detente at the end of January. I doubt that China would be shifting its supply chains around until then.
With that said,the state of the Chinese economy is far more concerning to me than childishsand-pit games and bath tub squabbles.
Back to super. There are major risks with cash but near term cash risksaren't anything like as high as commercial property, equities and fixedinterest risks. Cash is king for now.
Maybe in 12-18 months’ time we will start getting COVID vaccinations and follow-on booster shots en masse. That is a LONG time for global markets to wait. Many corporate creditors won't be wait that long and with losses being realised global bankruptcies will follow. QE and helicopter money stimulus will likely keep markets alive for the next 6-12 months but after that the gloves will be off IMHO.
Green house emissions and the Baltic Dry Index are the correct gauges for assessing the real state of the global economy. In developed countries such as the UK, greenhouse emissions dropped about 36% at one point but the drop has about halved (now a 16% drop from the base) as the economy re-opens (partially). Even with the emissions "bounce back" and a parallel Baltic Dry bounce back this sustained drop in economic activity is HUGE. It's a cliff fall that hasn't been priced by equity or property markets.
cheers
