@MostlyReadingsort of but not onlythe no 1 long term correlation...

@MostlyReading

sort of but not only

the no 1 long term correlation for USD gold and hence silver price is US debt/M2 size

but you are right - its the rate of the rise/fall of the debt and resulting M2 position thats critical directionally to gold price in the short term
+ the headroom for the US to raise interest rates to constrain inflation risk without stalling GDP growth

US gold collapsed in the 90s because - even though US total debt was rising - through the last 90s - US gdp growth was rising very strongly - productivity was exceptional - so interest rates were moved higher - meaning real interest rates/yields were higher

basically if real yields can move aggressively higher no one strongly wants to bid gold for monetary purposes

Whereas now its - much larger quantum of debt/ much higher rate of debt creation/M2 growth + capped inflation rates because US debt is so large they cant handle high long bond rates because the debt servicing cost would cripple them

I listened to ant interview on Palisades radio ~5 days ago and the speaker there was indicating only a small further rise in US 10+ yr bond rates would be enough to wipe out the entire US annual tax revenues in implied US T-bond coupon payments

I think the break line is generally regarded as 3% on the US 30-year but there are a variety of views