Supply and Demand Historically there has not been a large...

Supply and Demand

Historically there has not been a large seaborne trade in bauxite, with the low value of the material meaning that operations were predominantly vertically integrated, with the higher value products, alumina and aluminium metal being the main traded products. The bauxite trade was dominated by a few large mines, including Gove and Weipa in Australia, Boke in Guinea and Trombetas in Brazil.

This has changed with the rise of China since 2001. It is estimated that the seaborne trade now comprises 35% of global bauxite production of 260mtpa, with this largely into China.

China now consumes 60% of the world’s aluminium, and produces some 50% of the
metal, or around 25Mt of estimated global production of 50Mt in 2013 (source World
Alumium.org).

To produce 25Mt amount of metal, approximately 50Mt of alumina is required –
according to World Aluminium China produces (including estimated unreported
production) ~48Mt of alumina (with the balance being imported), which would require
around 100-120Mt of bauxite. This has led to the need to import over 50% of bauxite
requirements, with China producing ~47Mt, or less than 50% of requirements in 2013.

The rest has had to been imported, including from Australia, Indonesia and, at high cost,
Guinea. The Indonesian bans on the export of raw materials in 2014 severely curtailed
supply to China, however China did prepare by stockpiling large amounts of bauxite prior
to the ban taking effect, and smaller quantities (~10mtpa) are being exported from
Indonesia under a quota system.

Indonesian production in 2013 prior to the imposition of the quotas was 29,000t of
which the majority was exported to China.

This and the projection for increasing Chinese demand for bauxite has left an opportunity for other producers to ship into China. This however will be largely for material suitable for low temperature smelters – China does have domestic supply for its high temperature facilities.
Some forecasts see seaborne import demand rising from the current 50mtpa to 125mtpa over the next 10 years.

Pricing
Bauxite pricing is relatively opaque, and set by contracts between producer and customer. There is a benchmark, the CFR China CIBX Index, based on 5% reactive silica, 50% total available alumina and 10% moisture. Pricing will be affected by THA and RxSi contents, and shipping basis, including FOB or CFR. Whether or not a company has an ongoing offtake agreement, or is selling on a load by load basis will also affect received prices – in the latter case these will be lower.
Current index prices are in the order of US$60/tonne CFR China, with this forecast to increase modestly in real terms. However, given the fall in the Australian dollar and low current shipping costs, Australian denominated FOB prices have increased significantly in recent times.


http://www.metallicaminerals.com.au/sites/default/files/breakaway_research.pdf