Supply Side Shock in the Making, page-21

An interesting discussion. On EV's, it probably doesn't yet make economic sense for an average motorist (by annual distance travelled, say 20,000km pa) to switch. Yet it will soon be a no-brainer for any vehicle travelling 80,000km pa.

The heavy user is also by far the largest consumer of fuel. Their switch will have a major impact, though the change will take time.

Car manufacturers are exquisitely aware of the difficulties in the transition. Their fear is of a consumer strike against new ICE cars - running their ICE cars to scrap, both to fund the higher capital cost of EV's and to avoid being caught with a near-new ICE car when their individual tipping point, depending on annual distance travelled, arrives.

Cluso's link above (highly recommended) suggests very good profits for O&G producers, until there isn't. Leaping around this tipping point is for the adroit and brave.

Ash