Inflation - I don't think the cost of coal can go back to previous amount like you mention, thinking of how much costs of everything have gone up since the period you are talking.
Cost Curve - If the cost curve is anything like what we are given then the cost cant go down and stay down to anywhere near $50. In this regard its all about your time horizon with investing, if you can hold while the higher cost producers stop producing.
You say coal production has gone up 7.28%. In what locations? Are these locations just India and China? Historically do these countries export? do we sell coal into these countries?
You don't mention demand. Demand in India and China is definitely increasing does this outweigh the increase in supply?
Just my opinion.
NHC Price at posting:
$4.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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