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11,292 Posts.
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27/02/18
10:57
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Thanks @persistentone
Sorry - too much for me to do. I have tried to upload a csv but not allowed.
I see today that Morgan Stanley is coming to the same conclusion as I have re overwhelming supply.
https://www.ft.com/content/66012fe2-1ae1-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6
Really the market will soon produce as much of these Li materials as the market wants - as there is such an abundance of the stuff.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
| 1 |
|
NOW |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
not sure |
|
|
| 2 |
SQM |
50000 |
|
13000 |
25000 |
25000 |
102000 |
|
Brine |
| 3 |
Albemarle |
50000 |
|
20000 |
55000 |
|
|
|
Brine |
| 4 |
FMC |
46000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brine |
| 5 |
Ganfeng |
30000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 6 |
Tianqi |
34000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
from existing hard rock |
| 7 |
Other China adj |
23000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Both |
| 8 |
ORE |
17500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brine |
| 9 |
PLS |
|
42000 |
|
|
|
37000 |
|
Hard Rock |
| 10 |
AJM |
|
37000 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 11 |
Mt Marion |
64000 |
8000 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 12 |
Mt Cattlin |
22000 |
6000 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 13 |
Mt Holland via Lake J |
|
|
32000 |
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 14 |
Whabouchi |
|
|
|
|
|
no project |
Hard Rock |
|
| 15 |
Cauchari |
|
|
|
25000 |
|
25000 |
|
Brine |
| 16 |
Greenbushes |
80000 |
|
|
80000 |
|
20000 |
|
High grade Hard Rock |
| 17 |
ORE expansion |
|
|
25000 |
|
|
|
|
Brine |
| 18 |
Sal De Vida |
|
|
|
|
|
25000 |
|
Brine |
| 19 |
AJM stage 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
35000 |
|
Hard Rock |
| 20 |
Wodgina |
|
80000 |
40000 |
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 21 |
Bald Hill - Tawana |
|
25000 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hard Rock |
| 22 |
adjustment for China |
-67000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
totals - non cum |
416500 |
198000 |
130000 |
185000 |
25000 |
244000 |
|
|
|
Column 1 |
| 1 |
note - probably some doubling up between Chinese producers + and hard rock projects |
| 2 |
all projects are listed at completed target production - but most will take a long while to ramp up to there |
| 3 |
all rough numbers - about 20% of hard rock Li is not recoverable |
| 4 |
Much Greenbushes production assumed to be counted in China numbers - hence adjustment |
| 5 |
All in Lithium Carbonate Equivalent - LCE, assumes 80% conversion from hard rock conc |
| 6 |
I have found data that 20ktpa LCE is sourced from China, and 67 ktpa is from imported sources |
| 7 |
http://www.indmin.com/events/download.ashx/document/speaker/E000994/a0ID000000arDqQMAU/Presentation |
| 8 |
Don't rely on these numbers - lol |
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