Have to be brave to jump off the LNG LTD train while its full steam ahead! Probably best to view this report on computer to make for an easier read... quite in depth.
The market environment is going to remain depressed for a long while to come as will the silence. Buyers are under no pressure to sign contracts, seemingly holding the power in terms of options; Buying cheaply on the spot market... Buying through portfolio traders like Shell, BP, Engie... or trying to negotiate lower prices, flexibility, shorter contractual terms through traditional sellers. I do believe that will certainly change in the not to distant future because the reality is... if buyers don't sign on the dotted line by the end of 2018 or halfway through 2019, export terminals won't be built fast enough to meet expected soaring demand by early 2020s. In July 2017, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi, Chief Executive Officer of Qatar Petroleum quoted " LNG supplies are abundant now and there are many projects under development but the expected growth in demand is very strong. All the studies show that between 2021 - 2024 there will be a shortage of gas because of higher demand. Therefore, the launch of our project will be between 22 & 24 which is the period when there will be market demand". He's talking in relation to the company's announcement in April 2017 to develope a new gas project in the southern sector of the North Field which should be completed within 5-7 years. Qatar's exporting capacity will then rise from current 77mt to 100mt.
To make my point that only a small number of export projects reach FID every year (which is to our advantage), going to provide a list of all global projects that reached FID since 2011 ;
Australia, Gladstone Trains 1 & 2 2011
Australia, Pacific Train 1 2011
Australia, Wheatstone Trains 1 & 2 2011
Australia, Prelude Train 1 2011
Australia, Ichthys Trains 1 & 2 2012
Australia, Pacific Train 2 2012
USA, Sabine Pass Trains 1 & 2 2012
Malaysia, Petronas FLNG1 2012
Malaysia, Bintulu Train 9 2013
Russia, Yamal Trains 1-3 2013
USA, Sabine Pass Trains 3 & 4 2013
USA, Cameron Trains 1-3 2014
USA, Cove Point Train 1 2014
Malaysia, Petronas FLNG2 2014
USA, Freeport Trains 1-3 2015
USA, Sabine Pass Train 5 2015
Cameroon, Kribi Train 1 2015
USA, Corpus Christi Trains 1-2 2015
USA ,Elba Island Train 1 2016
Ethiopia, Dijbouti Train 1 2016
Indonesia, Tangghu Train 3 2016
Mozambique Coral Train 1 2017
In a previous report dated 8/8/17, i highlighted Golden Pass, Rio Grande, Driftwood, Fortuna, Woodfibre, Delfin as our competition in the race to FID. Going to share the remaining worldwide rivals we're in battle with;
Mozambique 12mt - On July 31 2017, Anadarko (Terminal) Petroleum Corporation announced that it had finalised 2 agreements with the Government of Mozambique - together known as the "marine concessions" - which would allow it to design, build and operate the marine facilities for its LNG project... a significant milestone on the path to FID. This follows the publication of the Mozambique Government Decrees approving those agreements. Financing is not yet in place! Will be the country's first onshore plant consisting of 2 initial trains to support Golfinho/Atum Field, located entirely within Offshore Area 1. Terminal to be commissioned by 2023/24.
Indonesia 2mt - Sengkang Terminal on South Sulawesi coast to be commissioned in 2017. Under construction.
Indonesia 3mt - Tangghu Terminal Expansion Train 3 to be commissioned in 2020. Under construction.
Cameroon 1.2mt - Kribi Terminal under construction, to be commissioned in late 2017. Has an 8yr offtake contract with Gazprom for full capacity, starting in 17'.
USA 2.5mt - Elba Island Terminal under construction, to be commissioned in 2019. Has a 20yr offtake contract with Shell for full capacity.
Russia 10mt - Baltic Terminal in Ust Luga Port, St Petersburg. Joint venture between Gazprom/Shell, proposed completion 22/23.
Russia 16.5mt - Arctic Terminal on Gydan Peninsula by Novatek. Stage 1 5.5mt completion by 2022/23 Stage 2 5.5mt by 2024 Stage 3 5.5mt by 2025.
Russia 5.4mt - Far East Terminal (Sakhalin 2) Expansion Train 3. Joint venture between Exxon Mobile/Rosneft proposed completion 2023/24.
Ethiopia 3mt - Dijbouti Terminal under construction. To be commissioned in 2018.
Canada 2.1mt - Woodfibre Terminal. $1.6 Billion project in Squamish, British Columbia, owned by Indonesian billionaire Sukanto Tango. Received Federal and First Nations environmental approvals in 2016 and was awarded a 40yr natural gas export license by federal government in June 2017. As of July 2017, two world class engineering companies KBR Inc & JGC America Inc which are both based in Houston, Texas, are working on the front end engineering design (FEED). Once FEED is complete, the next step is for KBR & JGC to develope proposals for an engineering, procurement and construction contract. Once that is complete, a contract to build the facility will be awarded and construction can begin. FID has been made but no construction date has been set. Expected to be commissioned in 2020.
Canada 10mt - Pieridae Energy's Goldboro Terminal in Nova Scotia. In June 2013, Pieridae signed a 20yr BTA with German Utility Uniper (formerly EON) for 5mt. October 2016, Pieridae reached a preliminary labor agreement with trade and construction unions... the agreement was signed by the Nova Scotia Construction Labour Relations Association, as the bargaining agent for the company, and each union that would provide trade workers. Project has a $3.5 Billion loan guarentee from the German Government and Pieridae has said it could move forward with the first train backed by the Uniper contract.
Canada 26mt - LNG Cananda Terminal in Kitimat, British Columbia. Joint venture led by Shell 50% PetroChina 20% Mitsubishi 15% Kogas 15%. On June 17 2016, the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA) approved the projects environmental assessment and the B.C. Environmental Assessment Office (EAO) has issued an environmental assessment certificate for the proposed 4 train terminal. In January 2016, was granted 40yr export license by the National Energy Board (NEB). July 27 2017, Shell CEO Ben Van Burden said in a conference call that the project's partners "could look at an investment decision in the next 18 months or so. This is going to be a project that could start producing right at the moment when the spot market, the short term market is getting very tight again ". Proposed completion by 2023/24.
On the 3rd of April 2016, trade publication World Gas Intelligence ranked the top 5 LNG projects most likely to proceed in Canada; 1. Woodfibre 2. Pacific North West (now cancelled) 3. LNG Canada 4. WCC Prince Rupert 15mt 5. Goldboro. Bear Head was a notable mention as having "gained traction", while Chevron's Kitimat 10mt and Shell's Prince Rupert 21mt being described as being "on life support".
In the race to become the first Canadian project to begin construction, i feel we're locked in at No. 3. We have the distinct advantage over these mega scale terminals that will struggle to survive because 1. Not seeing past the short term noise 2. Won't be able to reduce costs to a level that ensures economic viability which is vital in a low price environment 3. We guarentee getting to construction sooner because of our smaller output we're looking to fill.
There are 2 projects we need to keep an eye on;
Papua New Guinea 8mt - Papua Terminal. The Elk/Antelope joint venture between Total & Exxon Mobile is targeting to end front end engineering design (FEED) in 2018 and a FID in a timely manner. Currently in August pre-feed is being carried out which is identifying the technical and economic viability of the project. Proposed completion 2022/23.
Mauritania 2.5mt - Greater Tortue FLNG Terminal. Kosmos Energy has entered a partnership to use its exploration capabilities with BP's deepwater development, LNG production and marketing experience at project sites in Mauritania & Senegal. Under the agreement BP will acquire 62% working interest in Kosmos's licences in the blocks of C6, C8, C12, C13 offshore Mauritania along with the operatorship responsibility. Expected to be commissioned in 2021.
McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI) on the 20th of June 2016 gave their forecast of Top 10 Terminals likely to reach FID in the near term and in no particular order; 1. Pacific North West 2. Fortuna 3. Coral (FID confirmed) 4. Magnolia 5. Sengkang (now under construction) 6. Mozambique 7. Bear Head 8. Goldsboro 9. Tangguh (now under construction) 10. Cash Maple (now cancelled). Backed by my own research, they are spot on with the exception of missing Woodfibre.
Thats the potential, future supply expected to come online.
Now on-to demand...
Previous list of proposed and under construction import terminals covered in report on 30/6 & 8/8. UC = Under construction Exp = Expansion
Uruguay UC * India Gail - Kakinada * India IOC Gail Adani - Paradip * India GSPC - Mundra * Croatia - KRK UC * Sri Lanka * Chile - Penco Lirquen * Colombia - Buenaventura * Vietnam - Thi Vai & Son My * UAE - Sharjah * Thailand * Philippines - Bataan * Hong Kong * Turkey - Gulf of Saros & Gulf of Iskendurun * Greece - Alexandroupolis * Malta UC * Italy - Gioia Tauro, Falconara Marittima, Porto Empedocle * Pakistan - Port Qasim UC + Gwadar/Nawabshah + Karachi UC * South Korea - Boryeong UC + Samcheok UC * France - Fos Cavaou Exp * Spain - Mugardos Exp * India Fox - Karwar * Finland - Tornio Manga * Bangladesh - 2 terminals Moheshkali UC + Kutubdia + Matarbari * Belgium - Zeebrugge Exp * Myanmar * Albania * India H Energy - Maharashtra UC * India IOC - Ennore UC * India Swan - Gujarat UC * China Sinopec - Wenzhou UC * China CNOOC - Wuhu UC * China ENN - Zhoushan UC * China Guanghui - Qidong UC * China CNOOC - Shenzhen Diefu UC * China Sinopec - Tianjin UC * China - Rizhao * China Guangzhou - Nansha * China Hanas - Zhuhai * China Huadian - Lianyungang * China Huadian - Jiangmen * China Hanas - Jiangyin * China - Chaozhou * China CNPC - Rudong UC Exp* China CNOOC - Shanghai UC Exp * China CNOOC - Fujian UC Exp * China Shenergy - Wuhaogou UC Exp *
Updated...
Ireland 3mt - Ballylongford (the location for Shannon's LNG Terminal) and the gas pipeline to Foynes were listed as a key European Project of Common Interest, as part of a move to integrate Europe' energy markets and diversify sources. This designation is of huge significance as it opens up the possibility that Ballylongford could supply not just the Irish market but the European market. It also opened up increased possibilities for funding. In 2008-10 permits and foreshore licences were granted. New regulations introduced in early 2017 by the EU will lead to tariff harmonisation throughout Europe and are due to come into force in Ireland by 2019. It would bring increased regulatory certainty that Shannon requires to "justify such a large investment". The Shannon Foynes Port Company, which has jurisdiction over the estuary, supports the proposal regarding it as a good fit for the estuary with its deep waters capable of handling very large vessels.
Ireland 3mt - Texas based Next Decade announced in July 2017 that it had signed a preliminary agreement with the Port of Cork to develope an import terminal, basing an FSRU at the southern port near Whitegate.
India 3mt - H Energy plans to base a second FSRU at Digha, on India's east coast (West Coast) with initial capacity of 1.5mt in 2020 increasing to 3mt by 2025.
India 5mt - Swan Energy has plans to double import capacity at Jafrabad to 10mt.
Morocco 5.2mt - $4.6 Billion Port Jorf Lasfar onshore terminal. Moroccan Government is looking to diversify its energy consumption away from oil and coal. Total is expressing interest in the project as well as investing in South Africa as it seeks to open new markets. In January 2017, state-owned power utility ONEE picked HSBC Middle East as financial advisor. The first phase will be 2mt in 2020 and second phase 3.2mt by 2025.
Germany 3mt - As of July 2017... The European Commission has approved plans by Vopak, Gasunie and Oiltanking to set up a joint venture to own and operate an LNG terminal at the mouth of the River Elbe at Brunsbuttel, North of Hamburg.
Malaysia 3.5mt - Petronas has embarked on a joint venture with Malaysia's Dialog for the development of a terminal in Pengerang, Johor. Currently under construction, to be completed by 2019.
Russia 2mt - Gazprom terminal in Kaliningrad. Currently under construction, to be commissioned in 2018.
Estonia 2.7mt - Vopak, a provider of storage and pumping services and a global owner of terminals, will begin construction of a terminal in Muuga Tallinn in 2017. It is on the European Union list of Projects of Common Interests.
India 3.5mt - In August 2017, Shapoorji Pallonji Group submitted a bid to develope an FSRU at Mumbai Port Trust. The Mumbai Port Trust unit has received environment and coastal regulation zone clearances from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. The organisation is awaiting Cabinet approval for the project ahead of finalising the tender, along with Shapoorji Pallonji.
Taiwan 3mt - Taiwan's Government has given approval to CPC to build a 3rd terminal in Taiyuan, to be launched in 2023.
Philippines 3mt - Australian Energy World Corporation has built a terminal on Pagbilao Grande Island, Quezon province. On January 2017, the LNG carrier Ocean Quest arrived in the Philippines. First phase of the project is for 1.5mt, second phase 1.5mt.
Philippines 5mt - First Gentleman Corporation is working with state-led Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC) to build a terminal in Batangas. Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi, who chairs the board of PNOC had said in August 2017 that the government has opened the project to unsolicited proposals from China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore and UAE. Target completion date between 2022 - 2023. The Malampaya gas field is expected to be depleted by 2024.
India 1mt - In April 2017, India's privately owned diversified conglomerate, Essar Group, won a contract to build and operate the first LNG regal terminal in West Bengal (Haldia Port). Expected completion 2019.
India 5mt - As of January 2017, state run Hindustan Petroleum Corp LTD (HPCL) with an equal joint venture agreement with Shapoorji Pallonji Port Pvt Ltd, is in talks with 6 foreign suppliers to source LNG for its terminal in Chhara Port, Gujarat. Expected to be commissioned by 2019.
India 5mt (+5mt exp) - Petronet, who currently owns 2 terminals in Dahej and Kochi, has proposed to develope a land based terminal in Gangavaram Port on the East Coast close to Visakhapatnam. In April 2015, the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests gave green clearance. As of August 8 2017, the project is in limbo as it awaits commitment from the state government on 3 critical areas including; connectivity of the terminal to 3 gas pipelines through the state... Kakinada - Srikakulam pipeline of AP Gas Distribution Corp Limited... Mallavaram - Bhilwara pipeline of GSPL India Transco Limited... East - West pipeline of Reliance Gas Transportation Infrastructure Limited. The wish list submitted to the government was also seeking buy back arrangements of 1mt for 10 years and exemption from taxes on import of capital goods for at least 5 years.
Australia ? mt - Energy supplier AGL is proposing a floating gas terminal at Crib Point, Western Port (Victoria). The location can take advantage of the existing pipeline network and industrial port facility. The government issued a statement on August 9 2017 saying it "welcomed AGL's decision and is working closely with AGL to ensure approvals processes are streamlined to avoid unnecessary delays". Looking to begin construction in 2019 to come online by 2021.
Puerto Rico 2.3mt - On February 20 2015, FERC issued final Environmental Impact Statement and on July 24 15', FERC issued the order authorizing the construction and operation of the project. Excelerate is building the FSRU with construction estimated to begin 3rd quarter 2017, in-service date expected 2nd quarter 18'.
Ghana 2mt - Second LNG terminal in Tema is currently under construction. The project is being implemented by Quantum Power * the pan African energy infrastructure investment platform * on a built - own - operate - transfer basis (BOOT). Tema has been designed to help alleviate Ghana's significant energy shortfall and support the government's efforts to put an end to Ghana's protracted challenges with energy reliability, efficiency and cost.
Ghana 3.7mt - GE (General Electric) Endeavour Energy and Sage Petroleum have proposed Ghana 1000 Terminal in Aboadze, near Takoradi, in the west of the country.
Brazil 3.6mt - On Oct 17 2016, Golar Power reached a FID on the Sergipe power project near Aracaju, and is to charter the newly built FSRU Solar Nanook for 25yrs. The decision enables project company Celse to enter into a lump sum turnkey EPC agreement with General Electric to build, maintain and operate a 1.5GW combined-cycle power plant. Golar said the EPC contract with GE makes up 80% of the project cost and has "been structured on a non-recourse basis " to sponsors Golar Power and Ebrasil, "with all liabilities limited to the project level ". Capital expenditure for power plant and terminal is estimated at US $1.3 Billion, including taxes and financial costs. Delivery was/is expected for Nov 17'.
Kuwait 11.5mt - KBRC is developing an onshore terminal in Al Zour. Currently under construction and due to be commissioned in 2020. Its expected to take the place of current 5.8mt FSRU Mina Al-Ahmadi Terminal.
South Africa 1.6mt - The South African Department of Energy formed a Gas Industrialisation Unit in May 16' to implement its 3,726MW gas-to-power programme and has identified the need for 2 import terminals to support a proposed 2000MW power plant at Richards Bay (1mt) and a 1000MW power plant in the Coega (.6mt) industrial development zone. Start up anticipated for 2020.
Namibia 1mt - Xaris Energy has proposed a FSRU for Walvis Bay.
India 5.5mt (+5.5mt exp) - May 21 17', Hyderabad based Hindustan LNG LTD has expressed its interest in setting up a terminal at Chirra Yanam village in Katrenikona mandal of East Godavari. Documents have been filed with the Ministry of Environment & Forests. The 11mt development would be constructed over 2 phases, including a FSU, land based storage tanks and truck loading terminal. Project will also involve construction of necessary facility for ship berthing and mooring, storage of LNG, regal facilities and natural gas pipeline for connectivity to existing GAIL gas distribution grid. Hindustan is looking at supplying regasified LNG to Konaseema Gas Power LTD in East Godavari district.
India 5mt - Bharat Pvt Ltd is setting up a terminal at the largest private sector port on the east coast, the Krishnapatnam Port. The final environmental clearance from the Ministry of Environment and Forests has been received, the NOC from PNGRB has been obtained, the FEED is complete and the execution of the project is underway with expected completion by end 2018. Will be commissioned in 2 stages with the RLNG being supplied through the upcoming Ennore-Nellore-Krishnapatnam Port gas pipeline to the customers in South Andhra Pradesh & North Tamilnadu, and LNG being transported from the terminal in cryogenic trucks to non pipeline customers in Telangana, Karnataka and Pondicherry.
India 5mt (+5mt exp) - 12 Jan 16'. Government of Andhra Pradesh signed a MOU with Petrogas to ship in an initial 5mt a year through the Port of Krishnapatam. The port authority says the southeast coast project will start to operate within 3 years, using a FSRU with longer term plans to double import volumes to 10mt within 3 years of project start-up. Petrogas, a joint enterprise between Malaysia based Isomeric and India's LEPL Ventures, has pledged direct investment of US $449 Million.
Indonesia 4mt - Nov 16'. Indonesia's Kalla Group, through its unit Bumi Sarana Migas, is ready to build a terminal in Bojonegara, Banten, in response to the imminent decline of gas supplies in Western Java. Oct 16' "we are still in talks about the economy side of the project. We are still trying to get the project operational by 2019 but it appears likely to be completed only by 2020", Didak Sasongko Widi, Pertamina's Vice President of LNG said. Pertamina will use 100% of the regas capacity for 20yrs.
Indonesia 7.5mt or 9.5mt - Japan's Inpex is planning to build the Abadi Terminal, known as the Masala Block. Their original development plan involved a 2.5mt FLNG plant which was approved by the Energy and Mines Ministry in 2010... this quota was revised to 9.5mt to make the project economically viable after the Indonesian Government decided to change it from floating offshore as planned to an onshore facility. As of Nov 16, the company was carrying out the pre-front end engineering design before submitting the Masela's revised development plan to the government. Indonesia's upstream regulator SKK Migas has seen that the project may be delayed to around 2025/26. If FLNG concept gets approved, may come on stream by 2025... if onshore concept approved, 2026 is a possibility.
Indonesia 1.5mt - March 17'. Pertagas, a subsidiary of Pertamina, plans to kick off the development of FSRU Cilacap in offshore Central Java this year. Targeted to be operational in 2019, the gas from the terminal will be supplied to Refinery Unit VI Cilacap, owned by Pertamina. FID has been approved.
Indonesia .6mt - Feb 17'. PT Pertamina has proposed a terminal in Cilamaya, Western Java. Japan based Marubeni moved closer to realising its first FSRU venture, agreeing a power-purchase agreement in Indonesia for the Jawa1 gas-fired project. Marubeni has formed a special purpose company to drive the Jawa1 with its compatriot Sojitz and PT Pertamina (Persero). Jawa Satu Power (JSP) will build, own, manage a 1760MW gas-fired power plant, importing LNG using an FSRU.
Egypt 5mt - Egypt's 3rd FSRU was expected to arrive in June 2017 to handle a surge in LNG demand from new power plants coming online. However, these plans have been delayed as results of a re-evaluation of natural gas projects that will supply the power grid showed that the domestic market did not need to increase the imports of gas next year (as of Dec 16'). Gas had already held a tender in June for the FSRU, with Hoegh, BW and Excelerate Energy expressing interest.
India 3mt - Karaikal Port Terminal in Chennai. June 30 2017, a private port developed by Chennai based infrastructure firm MARG, is in advanced talks with 3 firms from the US, West Asia and Singapore to set up the terminal. Mr G R K Reddy, Chairman and Managing Director of MARG Group, "3 investors have shown interest and we are in the final stage of negotiations. We want the terminal operational in 24-30 months". Has all the necessary approvals.
India 1.5mt - May 22 2016 India Times. GMR Group Terminal at Kakinada Deep Water Port, berth 7, Andhra Pradesh. GMR will have captive use to the tune of .85mt with the balance for domestic piped and non-piped users within a radius of 450kms.
India 5mt - May 28 2015. 5th Gujarat LNG Terminal (Hazira, Dahej, Jafrabad in Amreli, Mundra in Kutch) proposed in the Nana Layja Village of Kutch... by Maritime Complex Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of IL & FS Maritime Infrastructure Company Ltd.
Pakistan possible additional 16mt - When Port Qasim commissions FSRU No 2 & 3 which are under construction, the country will have an import capacity of 14.3mt. In July 2017, Petroleum Minister Shahid Abbasi quoted "within 5 years i don't see any reason why we should not be beyond 30mt. We will be one of the top 5 markets in the world". Adnan Gilani, Chief Operating Officer of Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL), re-affirmed at the LNG Supplies for Asian Market (LNGA) conference in Singapore in Feb 2017 "Pakistan plans to ambitiously grow its LNG imports over the next few years. PLL expects the 3.5mtpa of imports in 2016 to rise dramatically to 20mt in 18' and 30mt by 22', therefore we are planning to take advantage of the current weak global market outlook and the country's well developed gas infrastructure, to rapidly grow our imports".
Having dug deep on China's updated proposals and terminals under construction, i was able to unearth a staggering 41 terminals!! According to an SIA Energy (Chinese company) report on 7 September 2016, their LNG imports are forecast to hit 200mt by 2030.
NOCs Proposed & under construction import terminals in the following cities;
CNOOC - Fangchenggang, Zhangzhou, Yancheng, Yantai, Jieyang, Ezhou Yangtze River.
CNPC - Fuqing, Zhejiang, Jieyang, Shenzhen(Guanhu)
Sinopec - Putian, Lianyungang.
2nd Tier Players
Huadian - Hainan 3mt, Ganyu, Hunan, Chengmai, Tongzhou, Taishan Guanghai Bay.
Hanas - Jiangyin, Putian.
Sino Gas & Energy - Shantou, Jiangyin, Taizhou.
GCL - Rudong, Nantong, Haiyan, Pengze.
Guangzhou Gas - Nansha.
Shenzhen Gas - Hua'an.
Pacific Oil & Gas - Yangjiang, Huanghua Port(Cangzhou)
Shandong Gas - Qinzhou
Zhengda Energy - Yantai
Yudean Group - Shanwei
Zhongxin Gas - Haiyan
Baota Petrochemical Group - Penglai, Ningxia
Port Proposals
Huludao North Port
Jiaxing Port
Longku Port (Nanshan) 3.5mt
Taizhou Port (Damaiyu)
Most likely to be successful;
Guangzhou Gas Nansha Terminal 2mt - May 17 2017 Reuters. Project possibly in partnership with Woodfibre... the Guangzhou company agreed in 2016 to buy 1mt for 25yrs (HOA) from an export facility that Woodfibre is building - a subsidiary of Singapore company Pacific Oil & Gas. Local government backed Guangzhou Gas is one of China's fast growing independent players in its LNG sector, outside dominant state giants CNOOC, CNPC, having emerged over the last few years as a niche gas importer and infrastructure investor. To secure the gas beyond the Woodfibre deal, company is looking for more flexible supplies under shorter terms, like 3-5yrs.
Shangdong Gas Qinzhou Terminal 3mt - March 30 2015 Reuters. Qatar's Qatar for Investment & Development (QID Group) and Hamad Bin Suhaim Enterprises have signed an initial deal to acquire 49% of China's Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group worth $5 Billion. "The cash will be used to finance a number of projects that Shandong is currently working on. These projects will include building 1000 petrol stations across 6 provinces in China and a LNG terminal", Ibrahim El- Tinay, Chief Executive of QID told reports at a press conference in Doha. Also on Feb 28 2017, Hellenic Shipping News mentioned the terminal in an article titled, " Chinese Teapots - the game changer in China's oil industry".
CNOOC Jieyang Terminal 2mt (+2mt exp) - Was approved in 2013 and construction completed in 2015. However, a lack in demand postponed commissioning of the project. In May 2017, Qatar Gas delivered commissioning cargo to Yuedong terminal.
CNOOC Zhangzhou Terminal 3mt - Under Construction.
CNOOC Yancheng Terminal 2.6mt - Proposed by CNOOC and the municipal government of Yancheng. In Aug 2013, was approved by National Energy Administration (NEA). As of 2014, the USD $1.7 Billion project was under construction. Dec 12 2016, on International Gas Union forum, statement made that a possible award date for the FSRU will be between 17'-19'.
CNOOC Yantai Terminal 3mt - Expected completion 2020.
CNOOC Fangchenggang Terminal .5mt - 2 small scale 30,000 m3 storage tanks are under construction.
CNPC Shenzhen Guanhu Terminal 3mt (+3mt exp) - June 10 2015, PetroChina scales back proposal because of environmental protection concerns according to a revised simplified environmental protection assessment report issued by local government recently. Plans now are to build 4 200,000 m3 tanks, 2 of which will be built in the first phase. As of May 5 2016, still pending approval.
Shenzhen Gas Hua'an Terminal .6mt - 1 small scale 80,000 m3 storage tank is under construction
Baota Petrochemical Group Ningxia Yantai Terminal - On June 7 2017, Baota Petrochemical Group Co Ltd selected a tender agent for its USD $712 Million terminal in Yantai City, Shangdong province. Tenders will be issued after mid June through the end of next year. Construction of the project is expected to begin early 2018. Will be a joint venture with Enagas. China Petroleum Pipeline Bureau was retained as the projects EPC firm (in April 17') after it received regulatory approval from the Shangdong Development and Reform Commission at end of 2016.
GCL Yantai Terminal 3mt - 14 August 2017. Announcement made of a joint venture between Poly - GCL Petroleum Group Holdings, Yantai Port Group & Shangdong Pan-Asia International Energy Distribution Center. Will be in East China's Shangdong province, constructed in the western area of Yantai Port. "Yantai is strategically located where the waters of the Bohai Gulf meet the Yellow Sea, making it the ideal place for a gas facility" , according to Barton Yu, Chairman and President of GCL. To be commissioned by 2020.
Sino Gas & Energy Shantou Terminal 3mt - Sino Energy in March 2011 signed a SPA with Australia's Icon Energy for the delivery of 2mt for 20yrs. In June 2015 that deal got extended to June 30 2018. Currently awaiting import approvals from Chinese Government to allow the construction and operation of the regal terminal.
Hanas Jiangyin Terminal 1mt (+2mt exp)- 1st Phase FSRU 1mt FID 2019 with commercial operations by 2020. 2nd Phase Conventional 2mt FID 2022, commercial operations by 2023. Well documented on their website.
Hanas Putian Terminal 2.8mt (+5-6mt exp) - 1st Phase FSU 2.8mt FID 2017, commercial operations by 2019. 2nd Phase 5-6mt Conventional FID 2017, commercial operations by 2020. Well documented on their website.
So... with future demand covered and tracing back to the figures from my report 8/8/17, Total supply stood at 124mt while demand was 130.5mt. Now i will include to those totals:
Supply from worldwide exporting terminals currently under construction + proposed projects (seeking commissioning by 22/23) mentioned on previous page - Tangghu 3.8 mt, Sengkang 2mt, Mozambique 12mt, Baltic 10mt, Ethiopia 3mt, Arctic 5.5mt, Goldboro 5mt, Qatar 23mt, Cameroon 1.2mt - Not going to include projects from 2024 or later because we shouldn't be in competiton with them for SPAs. = 68mt minus 2.5mt Shell contract with Elba Island & 1.2mt Gazprom contract with Cameroon = 64.3mt Total
Demand from the updated list above for proposed terminals and terminals under construction, taking into account Utilisation Rates - 75% India, 56% China, 50% Pakistan, 35% worst case scenario for worldwide, new emerging markets - = 90.65mt Total
Bringing demand prior to 2024 to 130.5mt + 90.65mt = 221.15mt
Supply prior to 2024 to 124mt + 64.3mt = 188.3mt
* Figures based upon having in hand all known export, import contracts from traditional sellers, buyers, portfolio traders. Contracts with and concerning oil and commodity traders like Vitol, Gunvor, Trafigura not included as their trading volumes are low and primarily trade on the spot market.
In closing, todays low prices has stimulated a surge in demand recovery, seeing new emerging markets take advantage of the depressed environment. I believe there is a tug-of-war going on between buyers and sellers at this present time. Buyers after bargains with shorter, flexible contractual terms and we're holding out for those beautiful 20 year contracts as an important anchor to reach FID. The longer they deliberate the more it plays into the hands of sellers because come 2019 it will be a fight for supply once they realise demand will outstrip supply by early 2020s. 5 key factors that make me feel secure about LNG LTD success:
1. Stonepeak re-signs for full 8mt capacity, a very bullish sign backing company success.
2. No debt and cash burn being managed wisely.
3. Seth Klarmen still onboard.
4. Future demand!!!
5. Export terminals won't be built fast enough to meet surging demand.
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