L,
No I did not post on GBP. As I said my knowledge of oil is limited and there was a very slim chance that it could have been a big discovery.
The risk ratio was much higher than people were posting on HC. I saw broker reports with 1 in 4 to 1 in 10 chance of success. To me these ratios are for basins where there is a significant amount of drilling, not new basin or sub-basin drilling with no wells drilled. At a very rough guess it was about 1 in 25 or greater.
If it had have been a discovery there would have been a number of other de-risked prospects and leads that would have been drilled. The sp increase would have been a lot.
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