NAN

1.36%

$2.99 nanosonics limited

Yes, sales rate of change or sales growth, can't fault your...

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JCoure

34,118 Posts.

890

26/01/15

17:11

Post #: 14641240

Originally posted by Gralynchett ↑

Hi JCoure

I think by Delta you mean sales growth? and the 119% refers the Dec-13 sales growth on prior corresponding period? Assuming I've understood you correctly, keep in mind that Jun-14 half NAN managed only 12.72% sales growth, for an FY14 average of 44.25%. Also, it's much easier for a business to achieve 40% sales growth coming off a small base, but as the business gets larger and larger it gets harder to achieve those same rates. Hence, the danger in extrapolating historical growth rates into the future.

That being said, I do think that NAN will achieve >20% sales growth over the next few years. As I mentioned previously, I incorporated a 20% sales growth rate into my 'bear case' scenario, which if it were to occur, I estimated I'd lose 9% p.a based on a 78c purchase price over the next few years. Obviously to invest, I think NAN will exceed those forecasts and I'll stand to make a tidy gain. My post was in response to your post "NAN can't lose unless the result has no growth" and my intention was to illustrate that NAN can indeed 'lose' even if it grows sales.

I agree with your point regarding exchange rates. A growing business is likely to experience a higher portion of their sales later in the period, and the dollar did face an accelerating decline during the Dec half. The point being based on averages there would be a FX translation benefit. For completeness, the monthly exchange rates I used were:

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

1

2

3

4 Dec-14 Dec-13

5 Dec 85.89 93.23

6 Nov 89.85 96.37

7 Oct 91.06 98.16

8 Sep 94.05 95.96

9 Aug 96.38 93.43

10 Jul 97.25 94.84

11 Average 92.41 95.33

12 Movement 3.16%

Regards
Gralynchett

Expand

Yes, sales rate of change or sales growth, can't fault your figures or law of diminishing returns scenario in terms of sales. Think the market for some reason expects bearish scenario.

NAN Price at posting: $1.28 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

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(20min delay)
Last $2.99		Change 0.040(1.36%)		Mkt cap ! $905.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.98	$3.04	$2.96	$3.563M	1.185M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	18897	$2.99

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$3.01	7344	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	11788	2.990
2	9571	2.980
1	1171	2.970
2	8671	2.960
3	4471	2.950

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.030	1171	1
3.040	1171	1
3.050	10670	3
3.060	24240	3
3.070	6621	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

NAN (ASX) Chart

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Buyers (Bids)

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	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
1
2
3
4		Dec-14	Dec-13
5	Dec	85.89	93.23
6	Nov	89.85	96.37
7	Oct	91.06	98.16
8	Sep	94.05	95.96
9	Aug	96.38	93.43
10	Jul	97.25	94.84
11	Average	92.41	95.33
12	Movement		3.16%

Yes, sales rate of change or sales growth, can't fault your...

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