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JCoure

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890

07/03/17

14:15

Post #: 23156462
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Originally posted by JUSTBOB ↑

From a chartist's point of view, we should, looking at the higher degree of a wave count assume wave 1 went from $0.02 to $2.99 ($2.97) then wave 2 from $2.99 to $1.07 ($1.92 or 64.6% overshooting the expected 61.8% by $0.08). The target was $1.155 so I topped up @ $1.16.

A third wave can never be shorter than a first wave, according to Ralph Elliott. Which means the SMN third wave must be at least $2.98 which would take the price from $1.07 to $4.05.

Now after a deep correction, as occurred with SMN, the third wave is usually 1.618, 2.0 or 2.618 times the length of the first wave when added to the low of the second wave.

1.618 is the more common result & this means the favoured length of the third wave would be 1.618 x $2.97 which equals $4.805. Call it $4.80 then add to $1.07 & we get a third wave most expected target of $5.87.

When looking for a target estimate of all five waves, you should assume that the first wave will turn out to be approximately 38.2% of the total. Therefore if you multiply 38.2 by 2.618 you get 100. Now do your sums. multiply $2.97 by 2.618 & you get $7.775 call it $7.78 then add our starting price of $0.02 & our long-term target in this five wave sequence should be in the order of $7.80.

Based on the price action so far $7.80 would seem a comfortable target but be mindful that we only assumed the third wave would be 1.618 times the first & it could extend significantly higher if 2.0 times or 2.618 times the first wave was to occur.

If, after the 4th wave, you want to pinpoint the end of the 5th wave then take the $0.02 beginning from the bottom of the 4th wave & multiply the answer by 0.618 then add the answer to the bottom of the 4th wave & you have a definite target which would make the 5th wave 38.2% of the 5 wave total.

If you understand the Elliott wave theory' you are able to project your calculations to give you realistic targets.

Expand

Now completely becalmed, Elliott Wave Theory and all T/A indicates it will be completely directionless in the 150s.

No sign of the breakout or breakdown in sight.

SMN Price at posting: $1.50 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 50.0¢		Change -0.005(0.99%)		Mkt cap ! $68.67M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
48.5¢	50.0¢	48.5¢	$7.837K	16.02K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	4134	48.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
49.5¢	10000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	4134	0.485
1	1157	0.475
2	33000	0.470
1	17391	0.460
2	10000	0.415

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.495	10000	1
0.505	9591	1
0.525	6375	2
0.530	24999	2
0.600	10000	2

Last trade - 14.51pm 10/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

SMN (ASX) Chart

Support Levels, page-791

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