Hi Raider,There would be some sensitivity analysis undertaken,...

Hi Raider,

There would be some sensitivity analysis undertaken, particularly driven by revenue parameters. Treasury are conservative folk but can be overruled or reeducated by the cadre in Ministers Office.

I don't fault Swanny for the deficits since the GFC.

But he got sucked into promising a surplus when he shouldn't have, mainly because he was praying for revenue to meet expectations or surprise to the upside (it didn't) and he wasn't willing to cut benefits or public servant count (savings of the latter wouldn't be felt until the following year anyway) in a meaningful way.

I know why he did though. The Budget has a massively higher public profile than the outcome at the end of the year. So to maximize the potential kudos he chose the high risk high reward option of claiming victory before the game began, rather than waiting until the ref blew full time.