Buddy, If you want me to, I can certainly do that. Here goes|
The reality is,
It will be at least 6 -9 months before CTP can ascertain whether Surprise-1 is commercial.
The flow test of max 300bopd over 4 hours is only a bare minimum. What happened to the rest of the 3 days of flow test? You guessed it, low flow rate.
There is still no data on the reservoir size. It could well be a small pocket and will not flow more than a day.
So far, knowing how excitable JH is and how much Pattos knows, the SP and the tone of JH probably reflect the actual situation..... Not much. The volume showed how the big boys think about this compare to last year before the oli flow likely ann. Cry wolf factor is also in play here on top of the SPP extensions.
After planning and getting approval (3months?) installing the tanks and rig for EPT (2-3months) and then 1-3 months of EPT, this can still be proven as uncommercial as the initial flow rate is not overwhelming.
I am sure SP will be stagnant until the EPT starts. It is still a gamble as 380bopd is only the MAX flow over a few hours and not the whole 3 days of flow test.
SPP will be taken up by selling existing shares ifnthe SP is above 5.5. Probably the SP will be trending down to mid 4s while nothing is happening until April/May for the approval, June/July for the start of EPT.
The environmental impact hurdle is still unpredictable in theapproval process.
My sentiment is short term sell as you will be able to buy back lower. many other 'knowledgebale posters' did just that.
If EPT shows that it is not commercial, CTP can still go the way of GDN in 2009/2010.
Have a nice weekend.
CTP Price at posting:
28.5¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Not Held
