Looking long term I more worried about getting a good core this time rather than expecting it to flow. Obviously if it had natural flow that would be fantastic, but given you would expect similar sands to JW then I think odds are against that even with higher pressure and possibly more chance of natural fractures.
But looking forward, I expect that positive analysis of cores would make a significant farmout fairly likely, and that's the primary thing this company needs. I still think CTP represents a very good investment if their acreage position is used wisely. Unconventional gas production is what is making headlines, but it is unconventional liquids production that is making money - either oil or gas with associated condensate is what you really want. And odds are that there are still some conventional traps within this vast acreage to add cream, but we'll only get to them with a significant amount of external funding.
In this market, I expect that funding will be found, and that is why I hold, and will pick up more on any specific well failure such as Surprise.
CTP Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
