Survival prospects slim for TMS, page-14

Hi George,

I acknowledge Scanbox's comments.

But, I also acknowledge that if we are seeing the demise of a company here, then we are also likely to see the demise of media assets throughout Australia.

It is not simply a case of someone saying that TMS is no good.

TMS has some good businesses, and but for the structure of its cinema rental arrangements, it would have a 3rd good business.

This tells me that TMS' problems are structural, rather than cyclical.

That said, we are still dealing with a business which is showing:
1)
revenue growth; and
2)
a revenue outlook of ~$180m.

It requires restructuring. It does not, however, require the morgue. That said, none of us can recommend or support any stock out there at the moment because the market is being driven by emotion and reaction.

In TMS' case, the bad news has been sold over and over at least 4x now (in April, in August, twice in September, and again this morning). Perhaps, this is why the charts show TMS' RSI as chronically oversold.