I would personally put a capital raising as a 20-25% chance at...

I would personally put a capital raising as a 20-25% chance at the moment. If the mine isn't being commissioned as planned (which does happen: look at MBN) then often companies try to top up their cash till the cash flow gets on track with commissioning. Going back to MBN, the share price did go up before they did their rights issue, so the argument that you don't raise capital via a SPP or placement when the price is on the way up is ridiculous. In fact, it is much better to do it then that when the price is trending down!

I'd say the bigger likelihood will be an announcement that the mine has made its first lithium (and there shall be rejoicing) and they have locked in financing and construction of the plant in China, etc.

There's an outside chance of both being true.