February 18, 2023Ukraine SitRep - Casualty Numbers, Lack Of Tanks, Something Is Up
There is some interesting news on the casualty count in the war in Ukraine.
Ivan Katchanovski translated bits from a Russian language BBC report:
"Based on open sources, the BBC managed to establish the names of 14,709 Russian soldiers who died in the war in Ukraine. Throughout 2022, Russian sources typically reported about 250-300 dead each week. In January, these figures doubled." #Russia 1/"But in just two weeks in February, the BBC Russian Service, together with Mediazona (recognized as a "foreign agent" in Russia) and a team of volunteers, managed to confirm the names of 1,679 dead, which is five times more than the usual weekly numbers." #Ukraine #ukrainewar 2/
The war started in eighths week of 2022. There were thus 44 weeks in the rest of the year. With 300 dead per week the number of Russians killed until the end of 2022 was 13,200. (These numbers likely included the number of Wagner mercenaries killed but probably not those of the Donbas militia.)
The BBC then counts 2,400 killed in January and 1,700 in February.
The total is thus below 20,000 the number Col. MacGregor and others have estimated for the Russian side. The BBC says it estimates that it only catches half of the dead but gives no sound reason why that would be the case.
The daily losses on the Ukrainian side are much higher. The daily clobber list of the Russian Ministry of Defense mentions about 400 Ukrainians killed every day. This is consistent with the numbers Ukraine's government mentioned last summer and fall.
Over the 358 days of the war the total sums up to about 143,000. The Russian reports do not include the number of those who got killed by the Wagner mercenaries in the Bakhmut area. That number is by likely well above 20,000.
In total the numbers are in the same range that we discussed previously.
I, as well as others who daily read the clobber reports, have noticed changes therein. Since the beginning of the year Russia has focused on countering artillery fire. An earlier Sit Rep mentioned the Penicillin passive artillery detection system that has been newly deployed with great success. Since then Russia reported a daily average of 12 destroyed Ukrainian artillery pieces. (This does not include shorter range mortars.) The number is now much higher than it was last year.
There are other changes one can demonstrate with a few lines from today's report:
Kupyansk direction:The AFU losses amounted to 80 servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, one Msta-B howitzer and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
Krasniy Liman direction:
Over 100 Ukrainian military personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, Akatsiya and Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers, as well as D-20 and D-30 howitzers have been eliminated.
Donetsk direction:
The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 150 Ukrainian servicemen, five armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Grad MLRS and one Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer.
South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions:
The enemy suffered losses of over 50 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, four armoured fighting vehicles, two pick-up trucks and one D-20 howitzer.
In Kherson direction, up to 20 Ukrainian servicemen, as well as four Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers have been eliminated.Next to the 400 killed Ukrainian soldiers the report mentions 14 armored fighting vehicles, 7 motor vehicles and 2 pick-up trucks as destroyed. It mentions zero tanks!!!
It has been like this for the last two weeks or so. Clobber reports that mention killed tanks have now become a rarity. Previously there was usual one tank killed for every two or three armored fighting vehicles. Motor vehicles and pick-up trucks were rarely mentioned.
That no more tanks are seen and killed at the front line might have either of two reasons. Ukraine has run out of tanks that are usable for fighting OR the Ukrainian army has called back all tanks and some armored fighting vehicles to train and equip additional forces for the rumored large counterattack.
I am not sure which is it. But given that before the war started Ukraine had a large number of old tanks in reserve that could be fixed up I presume it is the later reason. This is extremely bad for those who are currently holding the Ukrainian front line. They now lack the maneuverability and fire power for any local counterattacks.
There are other signs that something is up. The Wagner group has bemoaned an acute lack of shell supplies from the Russian army. I do not believe that Russia is running out of shells. But there has been a general reduction in artillery use. A good guess is that the Russian army is building up field reserves for an upcoming big offense that will need a lot of munition.
There are other signs for such an attack. Putin will hold a televised speech on noon February 21. The next day there is a parliament session which could enact any additional legislation that Putin may need. Then there is the Defender of the Fatherland Day on the 23rd plus two additional days of public holiday.
Last week Russia named new commanders for its four military districts. All are young 2 and 3-star generals in their 40s or early 50s. To prove themselves they will likely be aggressive and eager for action.
All together this seems to be a build-up towards some larger action. It would be good for Russia to finish the war before next years presidential election. Whatever is planned might be designed to allow for that.
Posted by b on February 18, 2023 at 16:16 UTC | Permalink
