https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/the-battle-of-hurtgen-forest-a-tactical-nightmare-for-allied-forces/
There are some parallels between events now in the Donbas and many battles in previous wars - ie see this link.Despite massive numerical, firepower, air power and mobility advantages, veteran US forces suffered heavy losses attacking an enemy dug into fortified positions in difficult terrain at a time of bad weather.
It is highly likely that Russian/Wagner losses are currently higher than in the past given the increased tempo of operations against a dug in and as yet unsubdued enemy. However the Ukrainians will not be having an easy time of it either, and infantry in fixed positions have been vulnerable to massed firepower since at least 1916.
It is likely losses on both sides are much higher at present than previously. Up until now the RF and associated formations had an infantry manpower disadvantage. I believe we may now be witnessing the opposite. It remains to be seen whether or not the Ukraine can sustain these losses. If you believe the standard western narrative then their losses have been slight and Russian losses enormous. I judge that Ukrainian losses have been severe, and Russian losses serious but a fraction of those claimed pro-Ukrainian commentators. However I have concluded that western intelligence agencies do not agree with me.
I agree that the UAF has pulled its best units out of the line to re-fit a mobile reserve with the latest NATO wunderwaffen and patched up Soviet era kit [some of which has been captured]. I would say that the destruction and/or neutralisation of this reserve force must be high on “Stavka’s” list of priorities – though it may well in part at least be outside the borders of Ukraine.
Anyway, by slow pounding attritional warfare the Russians are creating time and space for this force to be prepared. I have no doubt they have considered the alternative – that is to break through and bring it to battle and [thus far at least] decided that their current approach better suits their goals and the force structure they have at their disposal. After all, why expend your own mobile reserve if you think that the risk of a direct NATO intervention is real? However it is a long way to Kiev at 50m per day.
Posted by: marcjf | Feb 18 2023 17:24 utc | 14
