It is difficult to find info as to where Shell is in their programme but as I understand it Shell has the SV for 3 firm wells and 3 options.
MEO negotiated with Shell for the first of those 3 options after committing to A#1 in December.
Shell are presently drilling the second of the three wells ie Concerto 2 (now known as Concerto#3). I am not sure about their third well but the original slot for a well in AC/P41 has been cancelled.
See YA's post #:5658495 here.
The SV is expected to be available late November but as we found with Zeus (expected Oct 2008 drill Jan 2009) delays can occur. The problems with the BOP on SV didn't help earlier in the year.
The A#1 well should only take four weeks so even with possible cyclone downtime the $41m costs negotiated with PBR should more than cover it,
As far as meeting the Dec 31 deadline - this doesn't come into play as the commitment to drill has been made and any delay with the handover by Shell is beyond MEO's control.
The SP of MEO is just following its normal course. With so many retail holders holding 397,316,423m or 83.26% of the shares this is inevitable. Prior to the non-ann last year regarding the farmin there was a pump in early August to 59c to be dumped back to 46.5c over a couple of days so the recent 5c play is minor.
The difference this time is that the cornerstone fundamentals are stronger and any negative plays should be short lived and the upward trend maintained.
Apart from the usual profit taking most holders are waiting for the A#1 spud or any other +ve news. With Imminent ATM is the PBR payment and the GC$A report.
As far as leaks then about the P68 report it is funny that there was supposed to be good news on the pump but bad news on the dump. With MEO I believe the manipulators just use the outside influences as their tools.
Perhaps the report has been delayed because MEO have just appointed Errol Johnstone as Chief Geoscientist. With his credentials I would be asking for him to look over the NTP/68 data before publishing the new report.
As far as being sensitive data we know that Heron does have gas and the report will be subjective and is being put together for the data room in the farmout process.
We should know by now that our management team do not hurry as they take due care and diligence in their business dealings.
Just my thoughts.
#:>))
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