Hey Pbiz and all,And its nice to see an opinion based on some...

Hey Pbiz and all,

And its nice to see an opinion based on some direct information at hand. And thanks for the PSC reminder.

I would have, in fact did agree with a 2015 drill prior to recent events & results.

But also in saying that...from a shareholders (mine) point of view, a few months is neither here nor there.

It will however make a huge difference to those not in already in, in the future....Pay $0.XX cents now....or potentially $X.XX closer to work commencing??

If we were to drill in either say...July 2014 or January 2015....you can bet you bottom dollar, that the SP will not be anywhere near todays prices.

With Pagani initials coming in 3-6 weeks (whether 1 combined or 2 as they complete each basin I'm not sure).

Add in Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators,
9x4 kms structures,
30-60sqkm structures etc etc
Probably keen to get moving partners (OTTO after BHP let down),
Competent Persons Report (Kilombero) due short'ish Term now,
The fact the we have more money now, than we did at completion of the IPO,
Limited shares on issue, and even less available for trading,
Even a small strike (based on regionals) will/could catapult the price into the multiple dollars

So, my thoughts are:

1. Are we going to fast-track to a drill of some sort,
2. Are we going to fast track work on (IF awarded) Eyasi and/or Zambia prospect or prospects.

What ever the decision # 1 or 2, the Company is in the great position of having options.

The great things is, either one of these decisions will add value.

Not knowing Zambia results just yet....maybe the Company is preparing for the best...and award of 2 or 3 licenses.

Can you imagine what the SP will do if they announced planning to drill Kilombero and/or Pagani in 2014/2015, with a total resource potential of Multiple Hundreds of Million Barrels.....So I come back to:
Example: Drill in July 2014 or January 2015.....Shareholder will be pleasantly pleased I'd guess :)

Generalisation comment: Larger money does not have the same time frame for investment/return, as smaller investor expectations, and will be willing to pump in and wait for 2 years...no problem....we've just seen that with two unsolicited stakeholders joining us....And if we take some posters here on HCopper, many are taking the advantage of an early position.

What really impresses me, is the non-hyped reporting style of Dr D (I know I said this before)...
Whilst SWE is a young company, we have not so far been let down on what has been promised in regard to planning and time frames....and results/events & company actions have been better than expected by a longshot. (IMHO)

We don't get speculative announcements....we get the information once its confirmed by the company as going to happen. (you know...the announcements that say we want to do this...but it never happens) _ There has been no misleading, ambiguous or outrageous announcements.

I have no doubt that there will be some road bumps, some foreseeable and will have contingencies planned for, others unforeseen and will require solutions found and actioned....that's part of the game.....but if we look on our past record to date....Management are experienced enough to take these in their stride, which provides me with confidence.

Eyasi has huge potential, even when only looing at its size...4 basins, each double in size to Lokichar. I believe Eyasi will be a catalyst for investment by many....as will Zambia.

Kenya 12B we have 50% ownership.

Zambia we will have 83% ownership of each awarded license.

Pluck a little Zambia license or two or three....continue to prove our existing assets and between Kenya and Zambia...the SWE management has options to spread risk, and have money.

Our growth potential is extreme IMHO. Whats really attractive is these options provide access to money with a limited dilution to existing and future shareholders, which in turn would make getting shares even more tightly held...and we all know what that leads too when thinking about share price.


Forward thinking...
If we follow the rift, and Eyasi, K-K in the Central and Eastern parts continue to develop sound potential...And other companies prove up potential on the Western & Lake flanks....it appears they (West & East) may well meet smack bang in our Zambian applied for licenses if the trends continue, to continue.

Zambia, may well be another huge potential asset(s) at present totally under-estimated. (I have only added $1.00 value at the moment:)

We were discussing what medium-long term ownership might look like a few days back.....So what if SWE was able to farm down some Kenya or Zambia?....Money, probably a lot given the latest premium & regional successes, then what can we do with that money....Say we drill, say its successful, then what :), more money, more options...This thinking leads me into the following....20%-25%-30% of a hell-ova-lot with little risk.....or 50-60-70% of not much and with greater risk, and still need money which means high dilution, ending up no better off and possibly even worse off?? (that's my take)

I think its is natural, and even human to think or focus on one particular piece of the puzzle. I am really trying to look at the big picture. One thing affects another, which affect another, which affect another...and so on. Envisage what might happen, what you want to happen, then make a decision to back it or walk away...easy :)

I think a perfect example was the naysayers arrival to the thread the other day....well they're gone :)....(but probable holders now, and can't post because they will show their motives of their posts...LOL, so easy to spot :).....
....we got an 18% (high) premium at a cost of 12% dilution, AND received a SP appreciation of ~30% in two days, and some probable support due to this/the investors, then add sell depth is looking extremely fragile...every action has a reaction.

~30% increase, for what? just under 10 million shares traded?...what happens when we see volumes exceeding 20-30 million in one day?.....which might be all the shares available that anyone wants to sell? (and a little churn added for flavor) = we might never see those volumes depending on who wants to sell, how many and given shares on issue. Fun times ahead aye :) ?

So what was the impact of Managements decision?
How will they use this money?
What will the outcome or potential be; from the use of that money?

I can see a Company on a growth path, with a plan, even though (rightly so) we cannot/do not know all the information yet....but isn't that our role to some degree, to speculate, to try and correctly interpret (for or against), place a future value early (so to gain capital value ourselves) at this time?

Shareholders build a company as much as the Management does, value increases both capital for shareholders and options for Management.

So Pbiz, thanks again for your post:

Your call....was 3 wells in 2015

I will go for:

1 well in 2014, and work on Eyasi, Zambia, and Kenya, with further drilling anywhere/somewhere in 2015.....
Hope that's not to vague to even be a call...LOL


All this is my take, and definitely should not be taken as a reason to buy/sell/hold.
Its a perspective, based in what I hope to be able to say one day was intelligent interpretation...and not the opposite :)

Everyone enjoy the weekend, Nice week might see the first loaves of bread ready for distribution.



I would love to see other interpretations on the next 6-18 months. So don't be shy :)