I think the OZ deal is more likely to get FIRB approval than the RIO one.
The key differences are:
1) There's a real risk OZ goes broke if the MM deal doesn't go through. That means employees and shareholders lose. Many of them vote.
2) Whoever controls OZ will do well, but they won't control strategic assets. Whoever controls RIO has a seat at the table setting the prices for Australia's key bulk commodity exports.
3) Shareholders at RIO are divided about whether the Chinalco deal is a good thing. Significant numbers of large shareholders are sure it's a bad thing, and they don't need it to survive.
I can see a situation where Swan approves the OZ takeover and digs in on Chinalco. That will be the give and take I reckon, which would make sense.
Have a good one,
zzzzzzD
PS: Congrats on the green shield Mx - I for one enjoy reading your thoughts on OZ, so thanks.
OZL Price at posting:
$6.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
