Hey TheDhon,I take my hat off to you.You have been a staunch...

Hey TheDhon,

I take my hat off to you.
You have been a staunch supporter of SWE since listing, and your observations and assimilation to Africa Oil has been spot on.

I concur with your assessments whole heartedly!!

I took the time last night to properly read the OPL Research Paper...read 28 of the 29 pages (skipped the last page...haha)

1st thing that came to mind....was that it was written by the HC posters.....Much of the information has been researched and posted on SWE short thread (due to being a new company). This bodes well for me that the regulars on here are sticking to facts and doing some awesome due diligence.

As you've pointed out, we are certainly following a similar development path to that of Africa Oil.

We (HC Posters) were right with Swala Energy Zambia Ltd. And it should be noted that whilst we have 3 licenses under application, these are not valued in yet. I really want block 31...blocks 42 and 44 would be a bonus. I am not sure if its take 1, take all....or we might get one, two or all three. 83% of whatever we might get.

OPL mentions many times that their 29 cent Target Price is very much a early stage target, and set for positive review...again, this is mentioned many times throughout the research paper under different scenarios.

From OPL Quote: (referring to 12b ONLY)
The temperature range of existing basins in the EARS is quite high in the 40-70°C range.
Consequently, the partners’ subsequent modeling has indicated that these conditions have the
potential to generate between 12.3 billion and 22.4 billion barrels of oil and 3.1 – 10.7 TCF of gas in
Block 12B. These numbers represent expelled rather than trapped volumes. However, assuming that
10% of the hydrocarbons remain trapped indicates that resource potential could be up to 1.2 - 2.2
billion barrels of oil.
Although these estimates are highly indicative at present, this work has given the partners a solid
guide as to where to target conventional seismic lines in the forthcoming programme. Given that the
deeper parts of the basin are now known to the partners, this will enable fewer yet better placed lines
to be shot (at the consent of the government) reducing early expenditure on the licence.
End Quote

12b - working on only 10% = 1.2 to 2.2 Billion barrels....Wholey :).

I think SWE will be moved along shortly. I note the 8.1m broker options with a strike price of 30cents. I am sure the brokers will want to convert these (as unlisted), so can easily se this being taken to 40, 50, 60 cents any time.
Conversion will mean a $2.5m windfall for SWE, and no dilutionary effect as they are already issued and accounted for in a fully diluted valuation. Its like money in the bank at the moment.

Money back from Tanzanian Government on a successful gas or oil strike means a 10% return of costs bourne.

OPL has applied a 75% discount to Eyasi License to acknowledge its not formally ours YET...fair enough. On confirmation of SWE owning Eyasi as well, and staying inline with OPLs 50% discount, will add another 3 cents to the valuation taking it up to 32cents.

Zambia
Based on the same area valuations (with 75% discount) for OPL has used for Kenya and Tanzania success with the Zambia Permits may result in fair value as: (remembering 83% holding, not 50 or 32.5 as with the others)
Block 31 = 10cps - (The largest if the Zambia Blocks)
Block 42 = 6cps
Block 44 = 4cps

So, collectively as you can see....the potential is EXTREME and does not take into account future regional prospectivity, and compounding as we go. (derisking for us).

Getting exciting.....But not surprising.
We have enough bits n pieces going on, so am expecting regular updates on a variety of issues we are progressing, which should maintain interest.

Watch and enjoy time :)