swimming against the tide, page-4

i think you are attributing bit too much weight to some random LIC analysts and their unverifiable target price. the issues you cite "increased competition & downward pressure on retail prices?" are well known by the market... people have been talking about market growth, share and outlook for some time.

The cause of the latest price fall is mostly to do with a reaction to the FDA safety notice... so you're analyst call / position is right for the wrong reasons IMO (in direction but not target price - yet :-) )!
this has nothing to do with your LIC analysts or the view they may have had at the time. I doubt the analysts (or anyone - i certainly haven't seen such advice) predicted this although i do note certain analysts and funds cheerleading the price falls (no doubt for their own interests!)...

IF you have ever done a DCF on ACR or bothered to model the royalty and milestone streams under different scenarios you would clearly see that $1.50 would require an unwind of the product (Axiron) current market share and market growth position (ie a loss of Net sales, & milestone payments due to a shrinking topical testosterone US market / increasing rebating, generics etc). not impossible, but unlikely in my opinion.

But this is not true - Axiron is taking market share and growing. The testosterone has slowed but even still it is not shrinking (Axiron's net sales growth offsets this).
Although the FDA reaction (from a prescription perspective) is not known (still too early) it is unlikely in my opinion to result in a valuation reflecting the current market pricing or anything close to $1.50 IMO.

for my own position - i was a seller on the FDA news. I got out at 2.17 but jumped back in in the low 1.90's as it was just too attractively priced to ignore... wish me luck and we can talk again in 6mths to see how i have gone. Investing favours the brave!!!

I'm not trying to convince you here - but am just pointing out that you need to considered these variables in formulating a position on this stock... taking advice from a random LIC without understanding the assumptions is foolish in my opinion. you need to understand the detail here....

http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-wise-investor-targets-the-research-not-broker-forecasts-20140131-31sk1.html