JUSTBOB,I think you have it arse about face here - short term,...

JUSTBOB,

I think you have it arse about face here - short term, prices are a voting machine... but longer term prices FOLLOW fundamentals (and not the otherway around)...

IF what you say held true then investing would be 100% about price and everyone would just follow momentum as price would reflect 'value'... i don't ascribe to that and i think few others on this forum would either... if the "market is never wrong" then why bother investing in the first place? (you would have zero chance of making money as all current info would be reflected in the price. No need for analysts as the price is always correct? thats BS in my opinion)

True - if you bought at 4.77 and were holding now - then you would be sitting on one big loss - but that is a ridiculous statement as very few would be in the scenario (risk management anyone?). I could give you a case of buying in at .49 back in 2005 and selling out at some significantly higher number (4.77?) to prove my point. Fact is such 'harry hindsight' price analysis is pointless...

How about i flip a coin and then go long or short based on that outcome - and then compare in 6mth time... i would have 50% of being correct but that would not make me a good investor would it? 50% of the time I could say look, the coin predicted that i went short or long and the price fall or rose correctly... i must be a genius. replace the coin with your random analyst advise and thats exactly what you are doing here in my opinion.

in the short term, falling prices may indicate deteriorating fundamentals but then again it may not. To date we have not seen any evidence of such - outside of slowing prescription data. Yes market expectations have changed, BUT FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NOT!!! For Axiron this market trend has not impacted net sales as seen in the Q4 numbers... it could in the future - who knows (know one can say with any certainty its all just speculation).

I argue that the current price (offered by Mr Market) does not reflect true value of ACR... Your analyst may have other views (and i don't really care - unless you wish to provide some further detail here)....

"Downward pressure on prices means shrinking margins leading to overheads becoming a higher percentage of sales & lower profits." ... sounds like a cut and paste from a finance 101 textbook - trouble is it has no bearing to what is happening with ACR at the moment - do you even understand the ACR model?????

Regards,
Mita