SXY is expensive on an EV / EBITDA basis to the others.
Roughly twice as dear
But on an acre/ EV basis its cheap. Roughly half the price.
The thing is we know what these guys are producing and are going to produce soon....
But the huge upside is not in whats happening now and soon as the market is too short term focused and has already largely priced that into all (adjusted for risk).
per acre is not a good way to value companies because there are good and bad acres. And realistically if per acre was the best way then the big companies would already have PELs for every acre in Australia that the govt would issue them for. But they dont for 3 reasons
Pels cost money
Pels take time and money to explore and develop
Some pels contain rock and dirt
(Huge generalisation)
But as proved in the US shales the companies with small acerages tend to get in early and get gobbled up. The companies with huge acerages get to get in early and then they get derisked with time and development around them and then they get valuable and then they get gobbled up.
But "if " the acerage is good and "if " the neighbours do some work the multiples go up based on the acerages..
So to me if you want more certainty but less potential upside or downside you go STO or ORG
If you want medium
you go for BPT or DLS
if you want high risk high potential you go SXY
Another option is take a bite at all 3. BPT DLS and SXY
That way you have 3 chances of TO premiums
When one does inevitably get gobbled you pour the money into the other two or into a new one further down the chain.
In about 07 i got into AUT EKA and ADI. But my favourites was AUT based on its position and size of acerage. It proved very correct. I took a big position in AUT and i had parcels of all 3 that i traded.
I got two TO premiums and i got to ride AUT all the way..
This is slightly different. AUT had most its acerage right bank in the sweetest of sweet spots. arguably the sweetest of sweet spots here is debatable. One at present could say SXY owns the edges of the sweet spots...
I think though with 450 leads and prospects generated already there is a value/risk to a lot of their acerage.
Hence why a 3 way bet may be best.
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