To me there are a vast amount of value drivers in the next 18 months. But the biggest of all value driver already happened and was completely missed by the market
A combination of 3 things
1. Senex holds the biggest acreage in the Cooper and so any success reflects on that acreage and its value
2. Senex discovered 450 oil targets of which 288 are structural oil targets. And they are spread accross large portions of its acreage.
3. Senex has had a drilling success rate of 90% based on its 3D targeting
I cant even begin to tell you how much of a game changer those three aspects are let alone what they will allow the company to compared to had they not happened.
Yet right now because of other "noise" aka sentiment, the share price is the same as prior to these three events unfolding....
This is a risky game as in the past around 58% of wells at huge expense where failures. But with the advent of 3D siesmic and its proper processing its become a game changer, and the big analysts dont seem to have realised or reduced the risk margins as a result...
Dont get me wrong these stocks are far more risky then JBH or CBA. But if you compare this company and its acerage to what it was worth when they had unknown acreage or 2D results only and then you now add in 3D results with 450 targets already identtified and a 90% success rate this is an absolute game changer for Senex.
Then on top of that look at whats about to happen with gas demand.
Add in a huge farmin deal with almost guaraunteed sales to market and risk being carried and the SXY sp looks ridiculous imo.
Now consider the effects of a 90% success 288 structural oil targets bringing cash flows forward for this company....
Its only a matter of time in my amateur opinion till one of two things happens...
1. The analysts begin to realise what they missed when the game change happened and or
2. The results start speaking for themselves in revenues and margins in a language the market cannot ignore or miss...
So to answer your question. In my opinion the tipping point has occured in terms of success, now its a waiting game till the market realises and the results start to flow. I could be wrong. But ive seen this before and i think i know what to look for.
Please be cautious and do your own research plus seek advice. Im very very bullish on this and that does not mean it will come true...
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