SXY 0.00% $4.60 senex energy limited

sxy largest acerage holder in the cooper, page-6

  1. 12,028 Posts.
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    OGG, there is no doubt SXY has huge blue sky potential.

    Also, regarding the amount of prospects. psi did a post a while back where he rationally looked at the average field size versus success rates for exploration wells. Its worth finding if I get time.

    I think SXY will more than replace their reserves for the foreseeable future, however while that is an excellent outcome, they can do this because their production is quite a bit smaller than STO/BPT/DLS, hence easier to replace.

    I will only mention it one more time, Senex oil production is constrained by infrastructure, not reserves, so while they can explore to their hearts content and prove up 2P reserves which will support valuations and look nice on charts in presentations, if they want cash flow, they are going to have to do what all the other players have had to do, find multiple fields geographically close to each other, build a production hub, join fields via flow lines, build the larger pipelines and then sell sell sell.

    The reason the market is not overly impressed with SXY excellent drilling program, is simply the majority of the wells were drilling into producing fields... No 'new discovery' to excite the market. That will change in 2015 when all the 3D that is near completion is processed and provides all the data for choosing well locations etc.

    Etherazer, perhaps Pirraminta-2 was not counted, as I said, not totally sure. However, here is another example, SXY categories Korbari-2 as an exploration well, when Korbari-1 flowed oil. To me that is an appraisal well. However, not being a geologist or an 'oil man', happy to be set right. I still don't think it was drilling a wild cat, so to speak, know hydrocarbons increases the chances of success dramatically. To go a little further, while 22 metres of oil shows sounds impressive, if only 10 metres are net pay, and because it the murta formation, porosity is 8%, we are talking maybe 100-200mbo. Profitable, but not overly so.

    All I can say from the 8th Jan drilling report, is from those 16 wells. Only 3 were exploration wells.
    Pirie - Oil shows... no
    Dunlop - Success
    Sprig - Possibly viable, but as its Murta formation...
    The rest IMO are appraisal/development.

    That to me is why SXY drilling has not exited the market.
    Anyway, nuff from me. Just trying to keep things realistic.

    Good luck to all holders.
 
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