@Zenzen thanks for tagging me here. Although I do some basic charting, my decisions are usually predominantly based on fundamental analysis. Hence, I'm no charting expert by any means, but happy to share what I have on my chart. I'd welcome any constructive criticism / feedback from anyone here so that hopefully I can also improve my charting skill.
One thing I often use is Ichimoku Cloud analysis. As per the above chart, the SP is currently inside the "cloud" and the cloud colour is red. Some of the initial signs that I'd look for to confirm the uptrend and breakout are, firstly, the SP needs to go above the "cloud", and the cloud needs to turn to green colour (i.e. the dark green line needs to cross above the red line). Something interesting to notice is that the upper boundary of the cloud coincides with our current resistance zone (i.e. around $0.052-$0.053), and it is also aligned with the 61.8% fib retracement from the $0.120 all time high.
Another thing to note is that the volumes have been gradually decreasing since the start of the rally on 5/7.
Based on the above considerations, I am inclined to think that the SP is likely to hang around the current range $0.042-$0.053 until there is a catalyst on the fundamental side, as we need that "big push" to break the resistance.
A number of potential catalysts to look out for IMO:
- Mallina drilling -- due to start next month (August), but results will only be back probably by Sept.
- DFS -- although not explicitly stated, reading between the lines seems to suggest that it is not going to be released this month as originally planned. They mentioned Q3, but let's just hope it's not at the end of Q3 so hopefully August?
- Progress on binding offtake -- I see this is more likely to happen after the DFS, but wouldn't mind a nice surprise.
- Updates on BAPE? -- not based on any fact, but this is just me hoping there can be some nice unexpected surprise from the public consultation process. Who knows if we're lucky we might be able to gather some positive public support in the remaining consultation period.
In my opinion, just like with all other small caps stocks, it is important to have continuous flow of news in order to maintain the SP. Therefore, it is important for management to keep the market informed throughout the progress and keep the sentiment positive. If we are going for too long without any positive news, I'm afraid the $0.042 support (or even the $0.038 / 50% fib retracement of the recent rally) may be tested again.
All in my humble opinion...
(20min delay)