SYA Chart, page-1632

Bull/Bear battle for control continues

Yes SYA lost 3c to finish on 29c. Our volume was very high, I feel index rebalancing going on closing auction, just over 782m shares traded. When I saw the big numbers in closing auction being put, I knew it will be pushed down so funds get their fill. I put in a decent amount to pick up at 29c. We have had 3 days of decline. Usually I feel after 3 days, either it will consolidate or start coming back - of course in this case general market will also provide direction. It was good enough for me after it reached 37.5 - but time will tell if it was good or not.

ASX Li stocks were in slight panic mode. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average decline was 4%.

Yesterday US Li stocks too got spooked by the general market. Although the ETF of LIT lost around 4%, average loss in other Li stocks was around 6%

What next -

Yesterday US markets got spooked by jobless figures which came in under. There was already recession/inflation/interest rate fears, any bad data many punters look for cover. There was average decline of around 1%. ASX lost a little bit more around 1.4%. Resource stocks that I track in US and ASX, all had a decent decline.

Yesterday I had mentioned that there is a chance that SP 500 will be pushed below 3900 because lot of options expiring would have paid best at that level. Not sure whether that was the reason or only reason, but market did play as I thought. SP 500 was again pushed down below 3900 to around 3888, but they allowed it to close above 3900, barely though - at 3901.

Markets are at pivotal point as I have ben calling last few days. An immediate direction could provide a medium term direction. Another thing which I have been calling, and follow, is for SP 500 to be above 3900. It is really being tested. Both DOW and Nasdaq have lost their trendline, SP 500 just above it. I am sure it will be tested again tonight. If it fails many are initially looking for a number between 3750 and 3800, then June lows, etc . A move up for me is another number I have called before - 4120, which SP 500 the other day came very very close but did not touch. In a rise, that will get tested again.

Another thing which I had mentioned yesterday that today is the Options expiry day in US markets - weekly/monthly/quarterly - massive amounts of money are involved. The best payout is if SP 500 touches 4000. An uphill task now. If they had let SP 500 to around 3930/40, there may have been a chance, but getting a rise of 2.5% without any big news - probability is not very good.
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Personally it was a buy day for me - with lot of hesitation. I had sold around 20% of my stocks on Wednesday as I had mentioned, another 15% yesterday - in anticipation of SP 500 going below 3900 and ASX to decline today. Today I bought back 20%, rest 15% I have kept in cash. Couple of reasons to buy - firstly SP 500 is still above 3900, and while its above that, there is hope, Secondly markets played as I had expected, so hoping that today US will be green - not much conviction though.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures are slightly bigger red - not a good look for now. Asian markets had a good fall. Cryptos have surrendered for now, Bitcoin at 19.7k - not a good look. Volatility index VIX increased only slightly yesterday to 26.27. Many say that if disaster was going to happen, it would have shot up above 30 by now - so its holding some hope for markets to go up. 10 year and 2 year yields pointing towards recession. Consumer confidence data tonight. Fridays has been a big night in US markets for quite sometime. Last 4 weeks, every time market has moved more than 1%. Last week was green, but other 3 weeks big red. So will the US markets keep the tradition of a big night. And in which direction? No one is able to predict. I am hoping for a big green due to options, but an uphill task. But its possible. Any green would still be good. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.