Macro is dominating, and of course CPI data and protracted recession fears dominate, with a twist of Putin's escalation thrown in. I say protracted recession, because we basically already are in recession, with key markets contracting.
There is a silver lining here, as pointed out in Adam's video you(DC) posted.
In a nutshell, the bears are trying to scare everybody into thinking the S&P will contract below 3100/3200. But not all indicators are pointing that way, even the VIX!
Leading indicators, like the 10 year treasuries, look as though it may be peaking, with a double top loomig.
CPI, a lagging indicator, is still high....but with the full effect of the belt tightening around the world taking time to show up in the data, we may be seeing a figure late next month with a 7 in front of it.
So, what we may see, as has been played out many times in history, is CPI and 10 year treasuries topping out and signalling a market bottom, before we see a rally.
Make no mistake this is how we are currently tracking. The bears and fear mongers are taking the opportunity to spread as much FUD and drag the market down as much as possible, as they can see a reversal could be imminent... say next 1 -2 months. So, we just saw a drop in CPI, which is good, but not as good as expected, and the markets got punished.
And as I said, CPI is lagging, so should give us a clearer message next month.Probably during the late Oct/early Nov fed meeting. It could even take another month, but it looks as if it is tracking in that direction, which should coincide with the 10 year treasuries peaking, and as history has shown, the beginning of the trend reversal and a rally in the markets.
See below- I have drawn in some red lines to show the correlation between peaking CPI/treasuries and a low in the S&P. It is not and exact science, but the trend is clear to see.
Guess who else is looking at this??? The insto Analysts. And when they see this data lining up, they will start buying again and lead the recovery of the market. They will have S&P, CPI, 2 year, 10 year...basically a tonnes of data and indicators they will be looking at to line up....
Anything could still happen, the market is the market, but the overreaction to Sep's CPI figures in my opinion is unjustified, including the subsequent sell off.
How does this relate to us?
If the stars align here, the macro should drive our MC back to new highs, as we coincide with catalysts and near term production. I can't remember which poster rightly mentioned it, but dropping a great announcement in these conditions would be wasted... We have testing 40 cents on a couple of occasions, and if we combine our strong fundamentals AND improving macro-
Near term producer
No debt
Maintaining production timelines
And then throw in a few catalysts-
Production updates
Permitting
Construction
Moblan results
DFS
Offtakes
Refining decision
etc...etc....
We may see our chart behaving as below- Some short term pain- Big boys playing, shorters now on board and rising, macro conditions-CPI, Putin, protracted recession fears
So lots going on. Our fundamentals are still improving, which is keeping us afloat. We are a victim more of the macro conditions and our recent entry to the 200/ increased manipulation and shorting
History tells us, these factors, in time will sort themselves out.
So if you are trying to pick a bottom, good luck.....hopefully it stays in the range on the chart and you can get in cheap.
Having said that I have started buying again, As always, too early!!!!! And I know why... I am constantly haunted by hindsight and the fact that every time it retreats, I look back and say to myself 'Why the hell didn't I buy more????' Its kind of like when you look back at the real estate you bought over the years and say..'Gee, I should have bought 2...or...I should never have sold that one! Its happened with a few cars too....Alfa's, Beemers,various Porsche's and 911's....oh if I had kept them all.....
Anyway, in my opinion, long term is where its at. Patience is key, just hang in there and buy as low as you can, as long as you can... Warren Buffet swears buy it....
Good luck everyone..
IMHO, DYOR....
SYA Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)