SYA Chart, page-1848

Is the bounce still in play?

Yes SYA lost half cent to finish on 22c. Our volume was decent but on the lower side, just over 87m shares traded. Now 8th straight trading day around half cent of 22.

ASX U stocks declined with the indices. Of the 25 stocks that I track, average decline was 2.5%.

Overnight US U stocks also had a small decline, an average loss of around 1.5%. The U futures gained another 75c to reach $52.25 - good, steady rise in last few days. The U stocks though are still under spell of general market and have not decoupled yet, hence declining with general market. If price gets above say 56 or even 60, I think then it will start making difference, hopefully.

What next -

Yesterday US markets did not have a good day. SP 500 fell around 0.7%. ASX followed suit and declined by over 1%.

Yesterday was the good day for stocks to continue on their rally. Good earning results were reported including Netflix, but the 10 year/2 year yields continued increasing and spooked the markets. So even a good result could not overcome the interest rate fear.

Another thing that happened was SP 500 is now doing lower lows and lower highs. In the first week of October, many were expecting SP 500 to reach around 3885, but it reached 3806 and retreated, touching 3491. This time many are expecting 3800 to come into play, it touched 3762 day before yesterday and has started retreating - till now. Will it follow the same pattern from first week of October or go in a different higher path this time?
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If markets continue to fall, then there is a chance that last Thursday's low of 3491 could be breached and either a new low around 3400 or even 3250 could come into play. There is still some believe that last Thursday's low could be the low market was seeking for this period, its still probable but lost some odds yesterday.

Personally I was hoping for a play of 3800 yesterday and was disappointed it did not happen. Just to play safe I started going on a bit defensive. Next day or so may provide more direction if Scenario 1 I mentioned yesterday is in play - the down movement.

Other thing to remember is that Fridays have been very bad days in US markets. I think 9 of the last 11 Fridays, the US indices have fallen over 1%, with bigger declines as well. Lot of people don't want to hold for a Friday now, something to keep in mind for tomorrow's trading - there is always a chance though we could have a big rally.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures no clear direction as of now. Asian markets largely green, close to 1% fall in many places. Volatility index VIX sitting at 30.76 - gaining a bit yesterday. Anything over 30 a volatile market can be expected. Cryptos still playing dumb - Bitcoin just over 19k. Tonight more earnings report - Tesla had decent results bit is being punished - market wanted more. SP 500 needs to be above 3675 to keep up momentum, otherwise a low 3600 could be in play in short term. For an upside, its important to get towards 3800. It did not happen, but in a volatile/unpredictable market anything can happen. So will we cross 3750 and make a move towards 3800? Lets hope so. All the best.