As our SP has been controlled and played since entering the 200, so I have not posted a chart for a while.
The TA doesn't seem to make much sense, and even when there are clear TA signals presenting, the chart doesn't care and carries on its unpredictable bipolar behaviour.
Since being in the 200, low volume days seem to bother the forces at work, and a change in algorithmic strategy is sometimes initiated, to drum up greater sales, for both the long and short positions.
I recently have noticed some similarities in our trading pattern, pre and post CR.
As we all know the positivity in our SP during May in anticipation of 3 major announcements, was shut down and robustly reversed due to the CR. For most of us, it was a shot out of left field, that devastated our SP and our short term aspirations.
The Cr churn, the trading pattern that typically forms after a CR, has of course held our SP around the 18 mark. It almost feels welded there. The accumulation around this SP has continued, and been churning now for around 28 days.
We have had big green and big red days on the ASX, but we are stuck in this channel.
The good news, we may be due for a shift...
Our current trading pattern, has a followed a similar pattern to before the CR. Sideways action, stuck in a channel, accumulation and low volume.
Today, we formed a dragonfly doji, which is decent indicator that a shift may be coming.
Last time 10/4-11/5, we traded for 31 days mostly sideways in accumulation, low volume, and a few doji's. We were trading at around 20c, , had a dragonfly on low volume ,with an upswing in momentum and anticipation of some announcements, and we pushed up to 23.5. So today, we formed a dragonfly, on low volume, have been sideways in accumulation for 28 days, are anticipating our offtake and first shipment and have investor portfolio rebalances being done from now to June 30. There is a small momentum swing upwards, as the MACD crossed the control line and starts heading up. So, there is an argument to be made, that the current state of play is changing imminently.
The other possibility, as many here have experienced over the years, is investor portfolio rebalancing, or locking in losses to offset profits over the tax year, before June 30. Many late investors to Sayona may be in the red, and are looking to sell and book a loss. So there may be some additional selling pressure up to June 30, which keeps us trading sideways and suppressed, and our shift up could be delayed for another week.
July- Could be the turning point month. (Many of us thought that would be May, and it indeed started evolving, but the CR killed our run.) New tax year Macro steadily improving EV subsidies back on in China Lithium prices steadily rising Risk on assets now being accumulated Second offtake at market rates to be announced, and with this, allowing the market to fully price in our future earnings First shipment out to customers..LG...Tesla...more product for our existing customers, or Ford/GM/ VW ...etc...??? Further production updates. Ramp up seems to be going well. We have had production days now that we have already hit nameplate, 600t+SC5.7, so I am sticking to my forecast of consistent nameplate by late August. This is one aspect of this company I don't doubt, and proves itself again and again, and that is the plant operations in Quebec. With employees including technicians, engineers, plant operators, management,etc,etc, who have all worked there previously and know the operation very, very well, as well as a Hatch's plant upgrades, who also have been involved with NAL for a decade, there is no doubt in my mind that plant will run reliably, efficiently and to nameplate before schedule. Those Quebeca's up there know what they are doing alright.... Combine that with the Fournier guys in the pit and Solurail Logistique, getting our product to port, and you are on a winner.
Future Maybe's- Amoss is still in play, maybe a deal struck for purchase. Possibly another left field JV/expansion plan Moblan over 50% drilling complete, further resource upgrades, with 150MT+ being a possibility within 5-6 months. NAL/Vallee drilling updates and further upgrades
Anyway, Monday is the 26th of June, Friday is the 30th and the following Monday is the 3rd of July and we are truely in the new tax year.
We always seem to be waiting, don't we? Well the wait may soon coming to an end, as we look forward to the second half of 2023, with our offtake partners being announced, our production heading to nameplate, our quarterlies showing revenue, with our IRA/ESG compliant product being shipped out to our customers. Tangible progress that can be valued.
Even the TA seems to be agreeing this time, as we are coiled up in an accumulation phase in the post CR churn, but with EV subsidies back on in China and strong lithium pricing continuing from here, our next announcement may be the one that finally gets this show on the road.
Good luck everyone.
SYA Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)