SYA Chart, page-32

Maybe this can give you some further insights.....

And we know that they have stated that in regards the 1 for 6 offer , there will be NO Scale back on the entitlements as per the wording in the Prospectus ..... " but will not scale back anyEntitlement "

And so given that they Piedmont will obviously be taking their circa 9.9% of the Entitlement of 63,205,943 shares - and Given they would definitely take these up and lock them away ( one presumes ) . This then leaves a total of only 575,237,933 remaining from the original total of 638,443,876 New Shares.

At the same time if you then takeaway the ' Certainties ' of Directors and Insiders as currently reflected in the Top 20 ( net of Buckler , Brown , or O'neil ) ,

and assume ALL the remaining insiders including those held by First Nations Conseil De La Premiere Nation Abitibiwinni who currently hold a total of 360,898,633 shares , you would then deduct another 60,149,772 attached rights ....leaving you with 515,088,161 rights potentially available for ' Oversubscription's ' should they NOT be taken up. We can then ADD back 3,125,000 rights to that figure because it was declared in the Prospectus that Buckler would take up his ' partial ' allocation based on a further $100,000 invested back into the Company. So that is then an adjusted approximate 63,274,772 attached rights NOT for sale on market.

If we then look at ALL the Institutional holdings excluding the more recently appearing Comsec Nominees which was holding of 55,477,713 ( assume these are just being traded by retail ) , you would have another potentially ' locked ' holding of around 478,279,193 shares or a further 79,713,198 attached rights.

And I'm saying these are ' Locked ' because Sayona's Institutional holders have been around on the register and participated in some of the previous raises since virtually as far back as 2012 - 2013 with very little movement due to dilution.

So now we're down to the 4 remaining entries in the Top 20 in Buckler , O'Neil ( who has resigned ) , and T&J Smith Super Fund a/c who have virtually always moved in sync with Buckler since the day dot .....and who hold a combined 295,476,199 or the equivalent of 49,246,033 attached rights.

So assuming ALL these sub categories of the Top 20 take up their rights , this would leave a theoretical balance of rights allocated to investors ' outside ' the Top 20 of approximately 376,882,644.

So the real questions then becomes how many rights will be available for trading during the trading window and until trading closes as well as how many which do not get sold or traded and therefore become available to the ' oversubscription ' pool as a result of ZERO intentions of being taken up by their respective holders.

So can we expect that at least the last sub category of Buckler & Co with their 49,246,033 together with perhaps the approximate Comsec balance of 9,246,286 may be a figure closer to representing an available over subscription balance - or around 50 - 60 million or roughly 10%. So given that scenario , can we assume we are almost there in terms of the inherent ' Demand ' and trading volumes on SYARD rights ?. Because up until today , there had been only 23,386,697 changing hands with almost as much as that ( 23,342,238 at time of writing ) having been traded in just the first half of today's trading session. So that's now only 46,728,935 traded so far.

I mean it's really interesting because certainly there will be an impetus to trade or accumulate the rights ahead of the final close of trade and take up. However it certainly doesn't appear to be the case so far .....being one week into it. Will liquidity increase ? Or will it dry up with no opportunity for an exit if left too late ? And who if at all is the market maker on these short dated defacto options given it is 100% underwritten either way ? So these are important questions to ask and answer to oneself as well.

So a lot who want out would definitely sell. Similarly those who don't actually have the extra available finance to take up their rights in the first instance. And so with roughly 376.9 million seemingly up for grabs , I would have expected some early churn when they first hit the boards However as I had previously mentioned in earlier posts with respects to the type of raise they should undertake , I am at least happy that they ultimately chose the method of this ' Renounceable ' offer .

Especially now that it has been ' Fully Underwritten ' which removes virtually any risks to the offer that would otherwise have been attached in this situation.