SYA Weekly Report, page-11

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 23rd Sep 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. Last 1 week I have taken decisions around the bearish outlook of market and have trimmed most positions. I will return to diary once I start buying again - hopefully soon.
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.PERSONALLY - As I have repeated many times over a month now, I said if SP 500 level of 3900 does not look like holding, I will be defensive. I started that last week. My last week's diary you may see many stocks I said I sold out last week. This week I continued that. At this stage I am 70% cash. The last few months experience says, especially after how strongly we rebounded after June bottom, is that staying in was not a bad idea. But even then I was partially out - 50% in cash (My usual break 50% trading/50% long) and bought back. This time I have gone further and have trimmed some of my long positions. This is my way of managing risk - financially may not be the best way, but there is no best way and each of us have to do what they are comfortable with.

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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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.This week there are 3 addition to the list -
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.1) Tracking rise from June Bottom
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2) SP 500 Forecasts by different finance groups over last 9 months. Showing this to re-iterate that most people are not getting what's going to happen. Among others, in this example, Goldman have been revising their SP 500 end of 2022 targets

• In Dec 21 they said - 5100
• In March 22 they said - 4700
• In June 22 they said - 4300
• In Sep 22 just now they said - 3600

So its very evident that these professionals managing billions of dollars have no clue. They are not able to predict and take steps accordingly. Instead they are chasing the tail, AFTER the event has happened they are revising - so no good any of their predictions
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3) Two video around charts - In line with the videos I have been adding previously. One video from Chris which I have been putting for last couple of months. He sounds quite bearish now. Second video I regularly watch - its become very bearish now. They were bullish just a month back, but have turned very bearish now. Other day I posted a bullish video from Adam Khoo. This video contrasts that. Its good to have both sides of story - at the end of the day its up to us to read/watch everything and make our own decisions.
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BIGGEST POSITIVE OF this Downtrend: Although the indices have reached June bottom, Li stocks are still up 71% from June bottom - so we did not capitulate like June. Even if remove the best 3 performers, we are still up 50% from June. If we rise as we did in June and make similar gains, we will reach much higher gains as we start from a much higher level now compared to June. This also demonstrates that our sector is slightly decoupled from general market - very good signs even if general market is in further turmoil.
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Like last week what I said which came out correct- "Market continues to sit at pivotal zone, with a bearish outlook" - - :

• Previously I have said that there are 2 key data that I am looking - SP 500 value 3900 and VIX 20 - They are so far out now, no longer applicable for short-term, but if the bull case is to return sometime, very much applicable
• For bull case - The indicator I am looking at is SP 500 to possibly touch stay above 3636 (June low). On Friday it came close, 3647 and finished relatively strongly at 3693.
• For bear case - It could bounce from here. DOW already June bottom has been breached. If it goes down, next SP 500 the level of 3500 -3520 is another support area. Could bounce from there. But many, many bears have been calling for last 6 months that 3100 to 3400 will be visited. When we rebounded of June bottom and were playing around 4200, it looked like how much these bears have got wrong. Now, its within striking distance and not to be ignored.
• The 10 and 2 year yield, US dollar strength and Bond market (weakest in 40 years) - very strong signs of further weakness of economy including for prolonged period. These have to improve for a market reversal
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Positives for this week:

• The macro for Li is strongest it have ever been - market seems to be recognising it.
• Last 4 weeks - --5%, +13%, +2% and now -6% - still ahead for last 1 month
• We are 71% up from June bottom - a very great move
• For the year we are up by 44% across 54 stocks
• US Li and ASX Li in sync this week - We lost 6%, they lost 7% but may be Friday drop
• 4 Li stocks did their 52 week high this week - this would be the best performing sector across everything - in such uncertain conditions, still stocks doing 52 week highs

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Negatives for this week:

• Friday US stocks fell, so would be same as us
• We were not immune to general market downtrend, even if Li sector is going so strongly
• Short term market is looking bearish

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Overall feel for next week:

• General feel is bearish
• There is a chance of a technical bounce, but if that is to happen, it could happen early in the week
• Friday US Li stocks had a drop of around 3% - so Monday could be a negative day
• No strong sector specific catalyst, so general market will drive the market

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Here is the Figures for the Week:

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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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FINANCE PREDICTION of SP 500 at end of 2022 -

Example how they have no clue:
Goldman have been revising their SP 500 end of 2022 targets

• In Dec 21 they said - 5100
• In March 22 they said - 4700
• In June 22 they said - 4300
• In Sep 22 just now they said - 3600

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Couple of videos:
Chris Video:
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Game of Trades (This is from Thursday, before Friday's fall but still relevant)
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